Targa Resources (TRGP) rose 3.35% in the most recent trading session, closing at $174.81 on above-average volume of 2.71 million shares. This analysis evaluates the technical posture through multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory Recent price action shows a bullish reversal pattern emerging. The June 13 session formed a strong white candle closing near its high ($175.99 high vs. $174.81 close), which fully engulfed the prior two sessions' range. This suggests accumulation near the $167–$170 support zone established after the June 9 swing low of $162.80. Key resistance now resides at $180.72 (April 29 peak), while secondary support lies at the psychological $170 level.
Moving Average Theory The 50-day SMA (approximately $165) is curling upward and trending above the 100-day SMA (~$172), reflecting improving intermediate momentum. However, the 200-day SMA (~$182) remains a critical overhead resistance. The current price trades between the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating consolidation within a broader recovery phase since the May 30 low of $157.93. A golden cross formation (50-day crossing above 200-day) would require sustained closes above $182.
MACD & KDJ Indicators MACD shows a bullish trajectory with the signal line (9-period EMA of MACD) crossing above the baseline in early June, supported by rising histogram bars—confirming strengthening momentum. The KDJ oscillator presents a near-term caution: %K (93.2) and %J (98.5) are deeply overbought after the recent surge, though %D (88.0) maintains upward slope. This divergence suggests consolidation risk within the dominant recovery trend.
Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) are expanding after a contraction period in May, signaling increasing volatility. The price has pierced the upper band ($173.50) on June 13, a historically overextended condition that often precedes short-term pullbacks. Band support converges at $167–$169, aligned with the 20-day SMA. Continued upper-band proximity would require exceptional volume confirmation.
Volume-Price Relationship The uptrend exhibits robust volume validation. June 13’s 3.35% gain occurred on 86% higher volume than the 30-day average, confirming institutional participation. Similarly, the May 30–June 9 accumulation phase featured below-average volume on down days and expanding volume on rallies, indicating controlled distribution. This volume profile supports sustainability above $170.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The 14-day RSI (71.3) has entered overbought territory. Historically, values above 70 have coincided with temporary pullbacks during TRGP’s recovery phases. However, the oscillator’s current uptrend and higher lows since late May suggest underlying strength. While not yet signaling a reversal, the RSI elevation warrants monitoring for bearish divergence against price.
Fibonacci Retracement Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from the January 21 peak ($217.22) to May 30 trough ($157.93) reveals critical levels. The 23.6% retracement ($171.93) was decisively breached on June 13. The next resistance targets are the 38.2% level at $180.58 and the 50% level at $187.58—confluent with the 200-day SMA and psychological $180 barrier. Downside support aligns with the 23.6% retracement ($171.93) and 0% baseline ($157.93).
Confluence exists at $180–$182, where the 200-day SMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and April swing highs converge—a critical resistance zone. Divergence emerges between short-term indicators (KDJ overbought, RSI elevated, Bollinger extension) and mid-term momentum (bullish MACD crossover, volume-supported recovery), suggesting potential consolidation before testing higher resistance. Probable near-term movement includes a retest of $171.93 support followed by an attempt to overcome $180.58 if volume persists.
Comments
No comments yet