Tapestry Surges 3.48% to $110.17 as Technical Analysis Highlights Bullish Reversal and Key Moving Averages

Tapestry (TPR) closed its most recent session with a 3.48% increase, reaching $110.17. The stock has exhibited a volatile price action over the past month, with notable swings between key support and resistance levels. This technical analysis evaluates TPR’s trajectory using candlestick patterns, moving averages, oscillators, and volume dynamics to assess its near-term outlook.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals a bullish reversal pattern as TPR broke above a descending trendline and a prior resistance level near $105.30. A "piercing line" formation on 2025-09-10 and a "bullish engulfing" pattern on 2025-09-15 suggest short-term buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $102.79 (2025-09-02) and $98.47 (2025-08-25), while resistance clusters at $108.02 (2025-08-04) and $113.53 (2025-08-13). A breakdown below $102.79 may trigger further consolidation, whereas a sustained close above $113.53 could signal a broader bullish phase.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (DMA) of approximately $103.50 currently supports the upward trend, with the 200-DMA at $99.20 reinforcing the bullish bias. TPR’s price has remained above both indicators for the past three weeks, indicating a healthy trend. However, the 100-DMA at $101.80 suggests a narrowing gap between short-term and long-term momentum, which may indicate a potential slowdown if the 50-DMA crosses below the 100-DMA. A break above the 200-DMA would solidify the stock’s position in a strong uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence in recent sessions, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on 2025-09-10, suggesting a bullish crossover. However, the KDJ indicator (stochastic oscillator) indicates overbought conditions, with the K-line at 82 and the D-line at 78, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion. This divergence between MACD strength and KDJ overbought readings may foreshadow a pullback. A bearish crossover in KDJ below the D-line could signal a short-term reversal, while a sustained MACD above zero would maintain the bullish case.

Bollinger Bands & Volume-Price Relationship

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the past two weeks, reflecting heightened volatility. TPR’s price has tested the upper band on 2025-09-15, indicating overbought territory. The mid-band at $105.50 acts as a dynamic support/resistance level. Volume analysis reveals a surge in buying interest during the 3.48% rally, with trading volume exceeding the 30-day average by 25%. This suggests strong conviction in the upward move, though a sharp decline in volume during subsequent sessions could indicate waning momentum.

RSI & Fibonacci Retracement

The 14-period RSI stands at 62, reflecting moderate bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. A move above 70 would trigger caution, while a drop below 50 may signal a correction. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn between the 2025-04-03 low ($65.09) and the 2025-08-13 high ($113.53) highlight critical levels: 38.2% at $94.20, 50% at $89.31, and 61.8% at $84.43. TPR’s current price near $110.17 suggests a potential retest of the 78.6% retracement level at $108.02 as a key near-term target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy leveraging MACD and KDJ golden crosses for TPR over the past three years yielded a -14.06% return, significantly underperforming the benchmark. This poor performance aligns with the observed divergence between MACD bullish signals and KDJ overbought conditions, suggesting that while the strategy captured upward momentum, it failed to account for overbought exhaustion. The maximum drawdown of 0.00% indicates no additional losses during holding periods, but the negative excess return (-66.76%) underscores the need for tighter risk management or complementary filters (e.g., RSI thresholds or volume confirmation).