Tapestry Jumps 5.40% On Bullish Reversal With Heavy Volume

Tapestry (TPR) closed at $114.06, representing a significant 5.40% gain on elevated volume, rebounding sharply from the prior session's decline and reclaiming the $114 level. This price action warrants a detailed technical examination.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent candle is a strong bullish real body closing near the session high ($114.55), forming a bullish engulfing pattern over the previous day's bearish candle. This signals a potential reversal of the recent short-term downtrend evident in the October 10th and 9th sessions. Key immediate resistance is clearly established at the recent high of $114.55. Support lies near $108.14 (October 10th low) and more significantly at the psychological $105 level, which aligned with consolidation in late September and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The gap down on October 10th created an overhead supply zone between $108.14 and $113.48; reclaiming $113.48 was a bullish step, and closing above the gap area reinforces this.
Moving Average Theory
Calculating moving averages from the provided data reveals the 200-day MA resides around $75, well below the current price, confirming the dominant long-term uptrend established from the 2024 lows near $45. The 100-day MA sits near $85-$90, serving as major support during pullbacks seen in September. The 50-day MA, currently around $105-$110, was tested successfully in late September and early October, demonstrating its role as dynamic support. The price trading well above all key long-term MAs affirms the bullish major trend despite recent volatility. A golden cross occurred earlier (50MA crossing above 200MA) and remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line (12,26) likely crossed below its signal line around early October during the pullback, generating a bearish signal. However, following the recent 5.4% surge, this crossover may be weakening or starting to reverse, suggesting waning downward momentum. The KDJ oscillator, particularly the sensitive %K and %D lines, likely dipped towards or into oversold territory (below 20-30) around the $108-$111 lows of October 10th and 13th. The subsequent strong bounce indicates an oversold condition triggering buyers, aligning with the candlestick reversal pattern. A bullish crossover within the KDJ may be initiating.
Bollinger Bands
After the high volatility event on August 14th (massive volume and -15.71% plunge), the bands were likely in an expanded state. Recent price action in September and October likely saw the bands contract as volatility moderated, culminating in the sharp moves on October 10th (gap down) and 13th (strong bounce). The price recently dipped close to or below the lower band ($111.37 on Oct 13th is close), often suggesting an oversold condition or exhaustion in a downtrend. The bounce back towards the middle band is typical after such a touch. A sustained move above the middle band would be bullish.
Volume-Price Relationship
The surge on October 13th occurred on notably elevated volume (2.5M shares vs prior average), lending significant credibility to the bullish reversal and suggesting strong buyer conviction. Conversely, the sharp drop on October 10th also came on elevated volume (over 2.2M shares), confirming the selling pressure at the time. The capitulation volume seen on August 14th (13.4M shares) likely marked a significant low. Overall, the rebound on higher volume supports the sustainability of the recent bullish move off the ~$108 low.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating the 14-day RSI requires averaging gains and losses. Over the last 14 trading days, price movements include the large drop on October 10th. Prior to the October 13th surge, the RSI likely approached or dipped below 30, indicating an oversold condition, providing a backdrop for the bounce. The recent strong up day would propel the RSI upwards, likely pushing it back towards 50-60, neutralizing the prior oversold signal. It is not currently indicating overbought (>70) conditions, suggesting potential for further near-term upside before resistance becomes formidable. Its warning nature implies it signals potential turning points, but confirmation from price action and other indicators is crucial.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the clear uptrend from the August 14th low ($95.69) to the October 9th high ($116.22) yields critical levels. The 38.2% retracement sits at $108.35. Price respected this level almost precisely on October 10th ($108.14 low) and October 13th ($111.37 low), highlighting its significance as major support. The 50% retracement is around $105.96. The ability to hold the 38.2% level and rebound strongly is technically positive and suggests the larger uptrend remains dominant. Further resistance exists at the 78.6% retracement near $114.85 and ultimately the 100% level/high at $116.22.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Significant confluence exists at the $108-$110 zone: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~$108.35), the psychological $110 level, the proximity to the 50-day MA (~$105-$110), and prior swing lows created strong support, validated by the bullish engulfing candle and high-volume bounce. The KDJ oscillator likely signaled an oversold bounce in sync with price holding this support. A key potential divergence occurred around the October highs: price made a marginally higher high on October 9th ($116.22 vs late September highs near $115-116) but the MACD may have shown lower highs, suggesting weakening momentum before the pullback. Probabilistically, the successful test of the $108-$110 support zone combined with the strong bullish reversal candle and elevated volume suggests a high likelihood of further near-term upside targeting the $114.55 resistance and $116.22 high, although the overhead resistance from the October gap and prior highs warrants caution for immediate continuation. The bullish structure remains intact above the $105 support cluster.