TAO's $475 Test Could Spark $600 Surge or Trigger $365 Slide

Bittensor (TAO) is at a critical juncture as its price approaches the $475 resistance level, a pivotal threshold that could determine whether the token continues its upward trajectory or faces a consolidation phase. Analysts and technical indicators suggest that a successful breakout above $475 could catalyze a rally toward $600, with broader market dynamics and institutional developments adding fuel to the bullish narrative.

The $475 level has historically acted as a formidable barrier for TAO, having repelled multiple rallies in 2025. However, recent price action suggests mounting buying pressure. On the daily chart, TAO has rebounded sharply from the $290 support zone, surging to nearly $475 within a few trading sessions. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that breaking above $475 would validate a "structural shift" in the token's momentum, potentially triggering a measured move to $600, a level last seen in April 2024, according to a CoinCodex analysis.

Technical indicators further reinforce this outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has registered a bullish crossover, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near overbought territory at 71, signaling strong short-term demand, according to a Phemex article. On the 4-hour chart, TAO has formed a "stair-step" pattern, characterized by a breakout above $475, a pullback to test that level, and a follow-through move higher—a structure often associated with durable trends, CoinCodex noted.

Beyond technicals, fundamental catalysts are driving interest in TAO. Grayscale's recent filing for a Bittensor Trust with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sparked speculation about a potential exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could attract institutional capital, according to a CoinJournal report. Additionally, the launch of liquid staking solutions like Virtual TAO (VTAO) has enhanced the token's utility, allowing holders to earn rewards without locking assets while bridging to Ethereum and Base networks, CoinJournal also reported.

The token's market profile also reflects growing adoption. TAO's market cap has surged to $4.64 billion, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $900 million. Analysts highlight the token's scarcity model, including a fixed 21 million supply cap and an upcoming halving in December 2025 that will reduce daily emissions by half, as factors that could bolster long-term value, according to an InsideBitcoins analysis.

Despite the bullish case, risks remain. A failure to break above $475 could result in a pullback to the $365–$380 range, a scenario that some analysts view as a healthy consolidation phase rather than a bearish signal, CoinCodex observed. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line, currently at -11,045, indicates ongoing selling pressure, though experts caution that this metric alone may not derail the uptrend, according to a BeInCrypto analysis.

On the weekly chart, TAO is testing a multi-month rounded bottom pattern, with Crypto Knight emphasizing that maintaining a close above $475 could reclassify old resistance as long-term support, as noted by CoinCodex. However, a breakdown below $390 would invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the $290–$305 support zone, CoinCodex added.

TAO's trajectory aligns with the broader surge in AI-driven crypto projects, which have captured significant market share in 2025. Grayscale's latest report ranks TAO as the top AI-focused cryptocurrency by market capitalization at $3.8 billion, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of decentralized AI infrastructure, according to a CoinEdition report. Meanwhile, projects like Render Network and NEAR Protocol are also gaining traction, reflecting a shift toward AI-integrated blockchain solutions, a BingX roundup noted.

Bittensor (TAO) stands at a make-or-break moment. A sustained breakout above $475 would not only confirm the token's technical strength but also open the door to $600, a level that could attract both momentum traders and long-term investors. With institutional interest, liquid staking innovation, and a favorable technical setup, TAO's next move could redefine its role in the AI crypto landscape. However, traders must remain vigilant, as a failed breakout or broader market corrections could disrupt the bullish narrative.

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