Tanbreez and the Rare Earths Supremacy Play: A Geopolitical Gold Mine?

The U.S. Export-Import Bank's (EXIM) potential $120 million loan to Greenland's Tanbreez rare earths project has quietly become one of the most consequential moves in the global race for critical minerals. At a time when China controls 80% of the rare earths market and weaponizes its dominance, the Tanbreez project represents a high-stakes bid to reshape supply chains—and the geopolitical balance of power.

Why Rare Earths Matter

Rare earth elements (REEs)—like dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium—are the unsung heroes of modern technology. They're essential for electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, missile guidance systems, and even smartphones. China's near-monopoly on refining and processing these minerals has long been a vulnerability for the U.S. and its allies. Enter Tanbreez: a Greenland-based project with the potential to produce up to 425,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides annually, including high-value heavy rare earths (HREOs) that China also dominates.

The EXIM loan, if finalized, would fund the first phase of development, targeting initial production by 2026. The project's $3 billion NPV and 180% IRR underscore its economic viability. But the geopolitical stakes are even higher.

The Geopolitical Pivot

The U.S. has made diversifying critical mineral supply chains a national security priority. The EXIM loan fits squarely into its Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative (SCRI), which aims to fund projects in “trusted partner countries” to counter China's dominance. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory with stable governance and no ties to Beijing, is ideal.

The Tanbreez project also aligns with the Biden and Trump administrations' overlapping goals. While Biden's team blocked a potential Chinese takeover of the project, Trump's team has leaned in: Vice President JD Vance visited Greenland in March 2025, signaling strategic interest. The loan itself is a nod to the U.S. desire to avoid repeating past mistakes, such as its reliance on Chinese rare earths during the 2024 export ban on gallium and germanium.

Risks and Realities

Tanbreez isn't without hurdles. First, the loan is contingent on “sufficient equity from strategic investors”, a requirement that could delay approvals. Critical Metals Corp, which holds a 42% stake, must secure additional funding through offtake agreements or partnerships. Talks with Lockheed Martin and other U.S. manufacturers are ongoing but not yet finalized.

Second, the project's success hinges on building a U.S.-based processing facility. Historically, China has controlled the hydrometallurgical refining process, which separates rare earths from raw ore. While the company plans to process materials in the U.S. or EU, this will require significant investment and regulatory buy-in.

Third, Greenland's harsh Arctic conditions and limited infrastructure pose logistical challenges. The mine's location near a deep-water fjord offers year-round shipping access, but environmental permits and community buy-in remain critical.

The Investment Case

For investors, Tanbreez is a bet on two trends: geopolitical urgency and rising demand for critical minerals. Electric vehicle adoption, defense modernization, and green energy transitions are all driving REE demand, projected to grow at 8% annually through 2030.

Critical Metals Corp's stock (CMET) has already surged on EXIM news, but the real catalysts are yet to come. Key milestones include:
- 2025 drilling results: Re-assays suggest the project's resource base could double to 500 million metric tons, a game-changer for scale and valuation.
- Permit approvals: Greenland's government has been pro-mining, but delays are common.
- Offtake agreements: A signed deal with a major U.S. manufacturer would de-risk the project.

Investors should monitor CMET's stock closely, but also consider broader plays in the rare earth space. Companies like MP Materials (MP), the U.S.'s sole rare earth processor, or IperionX (IPX), which EXIM recently backed for titanium processing, could benefit from the same supply chain push.

Final Take

The Tanbreez project isn't just about mining—it's a geopolitical chess move to weaken China's stranglehold on critical minerals. The EXIM loan is a down payment on U.S. strategic autonomy, but execution matters. For investors, the upside is massive: a successful Tanbreez could redefine global supply chains. The risks are real, but with rare earths prices near decade highs and geopolitical tensions simmering, this Arctic venture might just be the next frontier of resource nationalism.

Recommendation: Watch for Q3 2025 drilling results and EXIM's final loan approval. A “buy” on CMET could pay off if the project scales as promised—but keep a close eye on funding and regulatory risks.