T1 Energy Surges 10.5% on Thai Carbon Capture Breakthrough—What’s Next for TE?

Summary
• T1 Energy (TE) surges 10.5% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $8.51
• News of a historic $2.9M+ contract for Thailand’s first carbon capture project drives optimism
• Technicals show bullish momentum with RSI at 57.3 and MACD crossing above signal line

T1 Energy’s stock is in a tailwind as a landmark carbon capture project in Thailand propels its shares to a 52-week peak. With a 10.5% intraday gain and a 21.8M turnover, the market is reacting to a strategic contract that positions TE as a leader in Asia’s green energy transition. The Environmental Infrastructure sector, however, shows mixed signals, with Waste Management (WM) down 0.93%. Traders are now parsing technicals and options data to gauge the sustainability of this rally.

Thai Carbon Capture Contract Ignites Investor Optimism
T1 Energy’s 10.5% surge is directly tied to its $2.9M+ contract for Thailand’s first Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project, awarded by Thoresen Jutal Offshore Engineering. This initiative, part of PTTEP’s Arthit CCS facilities, marks a strategic pivot for TE into sustainable energy solutions. The project not only validates TE’s technological capabilities but also aligns with global decarbonization trends, sparking investor confidence in its long-term growth potential. The stock’s breakout above the 52-week high of $8.51 underscores the market’s belief in the project’s scalability and recurring revenue potential.

Environmental Infrastructure Sector Mixed as TE Outperforms
While T1 Energy’s stock soars, the Environmental Infrastructure sector remains fragmented. Waste Management (WM), the sector’s leader, fell 0.93% on the day, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. The EPA’s proposed rule to streamline Clean Water Act Section 401 certifications could indirectly benefit TE by accelerating infrastructure projects, but WM’s decline suggests broader sector challenges. TE’s focus on carbon capture positions it uniquely within the sector, leveraging regulatory tailwinds and niche demand for decarbonization technologies.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Playbook for TE
• 200-day MA: $2.58 (far below current price); 30-day MA: $6.24 (bullish divergence)
• RSI: 57.3 (neutral to overbought); MACD: 0.609 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $8.40 (upper), $6.68 (middle), $4.95 (lower)—price near upper band

TE’s technicals and options data suggest a high-volatility, short-term bullish setup. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, with RSI and MACD confirming momentum. Key resistance lies at $8.51 (52-week high), while support is at $6.68 (Bollinger middle band). The 13.3% turnover rate and 10.5% intraday gain indicate strong liquidity and conviction. For options, two contracts stand out:

• TE20260123C7.5: Call option with strike $7.50, expiring 1/23/2026. IV: 108.16% (high), leverage ratio: 9.87%, delta: 0.646 (moderate), theta: -0.041 (high time decay), gamma: 0.251 (high sensitivity). Turnover: 126,172. This contract offers a 37.93% price change potential if TE breaks above $7.50, with high gamma amplifying gains from upward moves.
• TE20260123C8.5: Call option with strike $8.50, expiring 1/23/2026. IV: 115.63% (high), leverage ratio: 19.74%, delta: 0.397 (moderate), theta: -0.038 (high time decay), gamma: 0.243 (high sensitivity). Turnover: 15,787. This contract is ideal for aggressive bulls, with a 166.67% price change potential if TE surges past $8.50, leveraging high leverage and gamma for exponential returns.

Payoff Estimation: At a 5% upside (target $8.37), TE20260123C7.5 would yield $0.87 per contract, while TE20260123C8.5 would yield $0.87. Aggressive bulls may consider TE20260123C8.5 into a breakout above $8.50, while conservative traders might target TE20260123C7.5 for a safer, high-gamma play.

Backtest T1 Energy Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the TE after a 11% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 57.14%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.19%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.71%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 60.16%, with a maximum return day at 59.

TE’s Rally Hinges on $8.51 Breakout—Act Now for Volatility Play
T1 Energy’s 10.5% surge is a high-stakes move driven by its Thai CCS project and bullish technicals. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and strong options liquidity suggest a short-term continuation of the rally, but sustainability depends on breaking above $8.51. Traders should monitor the $6.68 support level and the sector leader Waste Management (WM), which fell 0.93% today, for broader market cues. For immediate action, TE20260123C8.5 offers a high-leverage, high-gamma bet on a breakout, while TE20260123C7.5 provides a safer, moderate-risk entry. Watch for a $8.51 close to confirm the bullish thesis.