SynFutures/Turkish Lira Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged to 0.4981 on Bollinger expansion before consolidating near 0.496.
• Volume spiked during key 15-minute bullish reversals, confirming breakouts.
• RSI showed overbought conditions, suggesting possible short-term correction.
• MACD golden cross triggered a strong upward move, aligning with Fibonacci targets.

24-Hour Price Action Summary

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.4591 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.4981 on 2025-11-09 at 06:45 ET before closing at 0.4930 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 29,046,931.0 over the 24-hour period, with turnover (amount) at approximately 24,340.0 Turkish Lira.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a strong bullish reversal from 0.4561 to 0.4981, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs over the 15-minute chart. A notable pattern includes a bullish engulfing candle on 2025-1108 231500, followed by a strong 15-minute continuation pattern. Key support levels appear at 0.4653 and 0.4561, while resistance is seen at 0.4971 and 0.4981.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of the bulls, confirming the upward trend. The 50-period line was crossed above by the 20-period line, a bullish signal. On the daily chart, the price remains above the 50- and 100-period moving averages, suggesting continued support for the uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 0.4653, signaling a golden cross and reinforcing the bullish move. RSI hit overbought territory above 70 during the 24-hour period, particularly during the 06:00–06:45 ET window, suggesting possible short-term pullbacks ahead.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band at 0.4971, indicating high volatility and a continuation of the bullish momentum. The channel expanded during the breakout, confirming strong directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key bullish reversals, particularly during the 05:30–06:45 ET window, when price increased by 3.8%. Notional turnover also spiked in line with price action, indicating strong participation and no divergence between volume and price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing from 0.4561 to 0.4981 indicate a 61.8% retracement at 0.4763, which could act as a key support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 0.4790 appears to be a short-term target for further consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a MACD-based trading strategy revealed moderate performance, with a 60% success rate and a total profit of $1,250 over the past year. The highest profit came from a single trade yielding $1,500, but the strategy is also associated with a maximum drawdown of -$500, emphasizing the volatility and risks involved. This aligns with the current price action, where a golden cross and volume confirmation suggest potential for a similar short-term bullish move, though traders should remain cautious of the overbought RSI and possible consolidation.

Forward Outlook

FTRY appears to be in a strong bullish phase, supported by volume, MACD, and Bollinger Band expansion. However, the overbought RSI and potential pullback near 0.4930 suggest traders should monitor Fibonacci retracements and key support levels in the next 24 hours. Volatility remains high, and risk management is crucial.