SynFutures/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• Price dropped 5.8% over the past 24 hours, closing near 0.6176 after a broad sell-off in late ET hours.
• Volume surged in early ET with a sharp move lower, but faded in overnight hours as momentum stalled.
• RSI reached oversold levels, indicating potential for short-term rebound but no clear reversal yet.
• Bollinger Bands have narrowed during consolidation, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown.

24-Hour Price Summary

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.6343 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and fell to a low of 0.6009 before closing at 0.6176 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The 24-hour period recorded a high of 0.6376 and total notional turnover of approximately $234.6 million (based on 3.85 billion Turkish Lira volume).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown from key support at 0.6275–0.6250, which failed to hold during the ET afternoon session. A long lower shadow at 0.6168 suggests short-covering, but a lack of follow-through buying has kept pressure on the pair. A potential support level forms at 0.6100–0.6050, marked by consolidation in the overnight Asian session.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both crossed below key support levels, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at ~0.6240 is now acting as dynamic resistance, while the 200-period MA (~0.6350) remains a major psychological hurdle for buyers.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (~29 as of 04:30 ET) and may trigger a short-term bounce. However, without a clear move above 50, the bearish bias remains intact. The MACD remains negative and has been diverging from price, indicating a weakening bearish momentum that could signal a near-term countertrend move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly in the overnight hours, suggesting a period of low volatility. The price remains within the lower band at 0.6130–0.6150, with a potential breakout scenario expected once volume picks up or a new catalyst emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the ET session with the breakdown below 0.6250, but faded sharply overnight, indicating a lack of conviction from bears. Notional turnover also declined despite the continued price fall, suggesting a divergence between price and market participation that may delay a meaningful bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 0.6376–0.6009 swing, the 38.2% level (~0.6225) appears to have been rejected twice, with the 61.8% level (~0.6160) now acting as a critical short-term support. A break below this would target the next major level at 0.6100.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators (RSI in oversold territory and diverging MACD) suggest a potential opportunity for a short-term reversal trade. A common strategy in such conditions is the “RSI-oversold entry” — buying when RSI drops below 30 and holding for 3 trading days before exiting. While FTRY’s RSI has recently entered this zone, the volume divergence and bearish trend suggest this may be a weaker signal compared to a stronger, more liquid market like a large-cap ETF. If applied, this strategy would require confirmation from volume and a follow-through move above 0.6225 to validate the rebound.