SynFutures/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) surged to a 24-hour high of 0.6424 before consolidating, showing strong buying pressure.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions mid-session, though price held above critical support levels in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session, with turnover spiking to 4.5M volume at the peak.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-19:00 ET, reflecting rising uncertainty as buyers re-entered after a brief pullback.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 0.6036, suggesting short-term buyers may control momentum.

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.5931 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.6424, and closed at 0.6146 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01. The 24-hour period saw total volume of 99.36 million and turnover of ~59.6 million USD equivalent. Price action indicated strong accumulation from 19:00 to 22:00 ET before consolidating during Asian trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed two key support levels: 0.6036 and 0.5931, both holding firm during multiple test attempts. A bullish engulfing pattern developed around 0.6036 late on October 31, suggesting a potential reversal. A small doji formed near 0.6424 at the session peak, indicating indecision and possible profit-taking. The 0.6146 close marked a consolidation phase after a sharp rally, hinting at a potential pullback or continuation depending on liquidity.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a golden cross late on October 31, supporting the bullish breakout. The 50-period MA remained above the 100 and 200-period MAs on the daily chart, reinforcing a longer-term bullish bias. Price closed above the 50-period MA on the daily chart, aligning with a continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded positively during the late October 31 rally, confirming bullish momentum. RSI peaked above 75 in early November, entering overbought territory, which typically signals a potential pullback. However, the price held above the 50-period MA, suggesting strong buying pressure. The divergence between RSI and price in the final 24 hours suggested a possible exhaustion phase, though buyers re-entered during Asian hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the 0.6424 high, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting a potential pause in the rally. A contraction in the bands during the overnight Asian session hinted at a possible breakout attempt. The upper band acted as resistance during the late October 31 rally, reinforcing its significance for near-term directional bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 6.9 million units at 22:15 ET during the 0.6383 high, confirming the breakout. A divergence between volume and price emerged during the consolidation phase, suggesting weakening momentum. The largest volume surge occurred during the 19:00 ET session, aligning with the breakout of key resistance. Notional turnover remained elevated throughout the session, reinforcing the conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 0.5931–0.6424 swing identified key retracement levels at 0.618 (61.8%) and 0.612 (38.2%). The 0.6146 close positioned FTRY near the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of consolidation. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the broader uptrend marked 0.615, reinforcing its significance as a support level for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong overbought conditions observed in the RSI during the late October 31 rally, a backtest strategy could be constructed around RSI-based trade signals. Using a standard 14-day RSI with a threshold of 70 for overbought conditions, a potential trade rule would be to enter a short position at the close of a candle where RSI > 70 and exit at the close of the next trading day. This approach assumes a bearish bias when price momentum becomes excessive. For the FTRY pair, this would imply a sell signal at 0.6424 and an exit near 0.6267 the following day. The strategy could be evaluated for its performance during the October 31–November 1 period using historical data.