SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) Market Overview

Summary
• FTRY opened at $0.4918 and closed at $0.4876 with a 24-hour high of $0.5244 and low of $0.4634.
• Price swung sharply lower after a strong early session rally, closing near the mid-range of the day.
• Total volume was 153.9 million, while turnover reached $76.9 million, signaling moderate but shifting interest.

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at $0.4918 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4876 the following day at the same time. The pair hit a high of $0.5244 and a low of $0.4634 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was approximately 153.9 million contracts, and notional turnover reached roughly $76.9 million. Price action displayed a volatile and mixed pattern, with strong momentum early in the session followed by a pullback in the latter hours.

Structure & Formations

A sharp move from $0.4876 to $0.5244 in the early morning of 2025-11-06 formed a bullish breakout. However, this was met with resistance and reversed into a bearish pattern, marked by a long upper shadow and a closing price below the session high. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.5015 as price moved from $0.4986 to $0.492, signaling a possible short-term reversal. Key support levels appear to be forming at $0.4704–$0.4721, with additional resistance near $0.4876–$0.4905.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, FTRY closed below its 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period MAs, indicating a broader bullish context, but the short-term reversal in the 15-minute chart suggests caution for near-term buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory early on 2025-11-06 and remained bearish throughout the session, with a declining histogram signaling waning momentum. RSI fell from overbought conditions early in the session to a reading near 50 by the end of the day, suggesting a potential balance between buyers and sellers. Momentum appears to be shifting from bullish to bearish, with RSI nearing oversold territory at several points but not confirming a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action saw a notable expansion of Bollinger Bands during the morning rally, with a high of $0.5244 near the upper band. After a consolidation phase, the pair drifted back toward the lower band by late morning and remained in the lower half of the bands throughout the session. A contraction in volatility was observed in the 24-hour period, suggesting a potential setup for a breakout or a continuation of the recent downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours, peaking at over 41 million contracts during the rally, but declined afterward, aligning with the bearish reversal in price. The highest notional turnover was seen in the 15-minute candle at 00:15 ET with $106.9 million, reflecting heavy participation during the bullish phase. A divergence between rising volume and falling price in the early morning suggests increased bearish pressure after the initial rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing from $0.4634 to $0.5244, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.4987 and the 61.8% at $0.4811. Price hit the 38.2% level before declining, suggesting resistance at that level. The 61.8% retracement appears to be a key area of interest for the near term, with a close above this level potentially confirming a bullish reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions at the next day’s open after a MACD Golden Cross is detected and exiting at the close of the third trading day, using daily close prices for MACD calculation and returns. Given FTRY’s recent volatility and mixed momentum, this strategy could face challenges in 2025-11-06’s context. The MACD Golden Cross was not observed in the 24-hour period, but the divergence between volume and price suggests that the strategy could benefit from additional filters to avoid false signals during high volatility phases. Further testing on larger historical data is recommended.