SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) Market Overview

• SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) dropped from 0.5995 to 0.5658 before recovering to close near 0.5906.
• Daily trading volume surged past 17.6 million contracts, signaling heightened activity.
• A strong bearish trend began around 16:00 ET, with a short-term bounce emerging overnight.
• RSI approached oversold levels, suggesting potential reversal, though momentum remains mixed.
• Volatility and volume diverged at key turns, highlighting mixed conviction in price moves.

24-Hour Summary and Opening View

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.5949 on 2025-10-30 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.5906 on 2025-10-31 at the same time. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.5995 and a low of 0.5658. Total trading volume amounted to 55.68 million contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately 32.3 million Turkish Lira. The pair exhibited a pronounced bearish bias during the day, with a late-night rebound into oversold territory.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish impulse starting at 16:00 ET, as a long-bodied bear candle confirmed the breakdown from a prior consolidation range. Around 01:15 ET on the 31st, a bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.5804, followed by a doji at 02:45 ET at 0.5724, signaling potential exhaustion. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 04:00–04:45 ET, as price rallied from 0.5691 to 0.5797, offering a short-covering opportunity. Notable support levels emerged at 0.5657–0.5727, while resistance levels appear at 0.5795–0.5859.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment, with price closing below both in the final hours of the session. This suggests bearish momentum remained intact during the day. On the daily chart, price remains above both the 50 and 200-day MAs, suggesting that while the short-term trend is bearish, the medium-term trend remains neutral-to-bullish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover at 16:00 ET confirming the initial breakdown. The RSI dropped below 30 for a brief period overnight, signaling an oversold condition. While this suggests a potential bounce, the RSI failed to remain below 30 for a sustained period, weakening the strength of the signal. Momentum appears to be stabilizing but lacks the clarity needed for a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the 16:00 ET breakdown, with price falling below the lower Bollinger Band and remaining there for several hours. The bounce overnight saw price returning to the middle band, suggesting a potential equilibrium. However, the wide bands suggest continued uncertainty, and traders may want to monitor for a retest of the 0.5658 level before expecting a definitive reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown at 16:00 ET, with 2.57 million contracts traded. This was followed by a relative volume trough during the overnight bounce, indicating weaker conviction in the bullish move. Turnover spiked around the key support level of 0.5658, confirming this level as a potential floor. Divergences between volume and price were observed during the late-night recovery, suggesting traders may have been short-covering rather than initiating new long positions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 16:00 ET breakdown from 0.5987 to 0.5658, the 0.5751 level (38.2%) was a key psychological barrier during the bounce. Price briefly tested the 0.5795 (50%) level but failed to hold it. For a full recovery, a test of the 61.8% level at 0.5866 would be required. On the daily chart, the 0.5845 level is a key retracement level for the broader bearish move initiated in mid-October.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves selling on a MACD Death Cross (when the MACD line crosses below the signal line) and RSI < 30, then buying-to-cover one trading day later. Given the current data and observed MACD/RSI behavior, this strategy could have been triggered around 16:00 ET–02:45 ET, when RSI entered oversold territory and the MACD remained negative. The overnight bounce offers a potential short-term reversal point for this strategy. However, the divergence between volume and price during this bounce suggests traders should remain cautious. The effectiveness of this strategy on FTRY will depend on the accuracy of the ticker symbol used in the system and the precision of the MACD/RSI data.