Synapse/USDC Market Overview: Volatility and Bearish Momentum on 24-Hour Chart

• Price declined sharply from 0.1194 to 0.1123, with significant bearish momentum and volume during the 15-hour window.
• Volatility remained high, as seen from Bollinger Band expansion and RSI near oversold territory at the 24-hour close.
• A large volume spike of 76,664.1 USDC occurred during the 15:15–15:30 ET window, coinciding with a major price drop to 0.1132.
• The 24-hour candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern on daily charts, suggesting potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Notional turnover was uneven, with a strong divergence between volume and price movement after 15:00 ET.

The Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) pair opened at 0.1187 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1119 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour high of 0.1200 and a low of 0.1123. The total volume traded over the period was 588,844.2, with a notional turnover of 63,843.6 USDC. The price action displayed a sharp and sustained decline, particularly in the last 8 hours of the window.

Structure and candlestick patterns show a bearish bias, including a large bearish engulfing pattern near the 24-hour close and several long lower shadows indicating selling pressure. Notable support levels emerged at 0.1144 (confirmed by a swing low and consolidation) and 0.1126, which may serve as potential short-term floors. Resistance levels appear at 0.1163 and 0.1170, where the price previously consolidated or reversed direction.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price closing below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are also aligned in a downward slope, suggesting a broader downtrend. The convergence of these indicators implies a continuation of bearish pressure may be likely unless a strong reversal occurs above 0.1150.

MACD showed bearish divergence with a negative crossover in the 15-hour window, confirming the weakening momentum. RSI approached 30 at the 24-hour close, signaling potential oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price drop from 0.1170 to 0.1123, indicating heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a high probability of further downward movement in the near term.

Volume and turnover were highly uneven, with a massive spike of 76,664.1 USDC volume at 15:15–15:30 ET coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.1143 to 0.1132. However, subsequent volume did not confirm a strong reversal, suggesting selling pressure may still be dominant. The divergence between price and volume during the final hours of the 24-hour period highlights potential distribution or forced liquidation.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the major 15-minute swing (0.1170 to 0.1123) suggest 38.2% at 0.1153 and 61.8% at 0.1137. These levels may serve as temporary price targets for short-term traders. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the recent high at 0.1200 aligns near 0.1162, which could act as a critical resistance level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves identifying divergences between price and RSI on the 15-minute chart, particularly in oversold conditions. Given the current RSI reading near 30 and the bearish divergence in the MACD, a potential short entry could be triggered on a break below the 0.1123 support level with a stop just above 0.1137 (61.8% retracement). Targets are set at 0.1115 and 0.1100. This approach would require confirmation of continued momentum using volume as a filter—i.e., a large volume bar with a bearish close would validate the signal. The strategy aligns well with the observed price dynamics and could serve as a viable short-term trading framework.