Synapse/USDC Market Overview (SYNUSDC): Bearish Momentum and Key Support Test

• Price declined from 0.1151 to 0.1081 over 24 hours, breaking below key support levels.
• High volatility observed, with RSI and MACD signaling bearish momentum.
• Volume surged in the final hours, confirming the downward move and possible exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened in late hours, indicating increasing uncertainty and price swings.
• Divergence between price and turnover suggests mixed market sentiment and potential reversal risk.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) opened at 0.1151, hit a 24-hour high of 0.1153, and a low of 0.1057 before closing at 0.1081. Total volume traded was 752,834.4, and notional turnover reached $83,829. The pair has seen a pronounced bearish shift, particularly after 20:00 ET, when price began to break through key psychological and Fibonacci levels. The recent action suggests a strong near-term bearish bias, with a high probability of testing further support below 0.1080.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period reveals a strong bearish bias. A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at 16:15 ET, signaling a reversal in the early part of the move. The price then entered a consolidation phase before breaking below the 0.1141 support level. This level was tested and broken multiple times, with a final close at 0.1081, indicating strong conviction in the downward move. The 0.1080–0.1090 range now appears as the immediate key support. A doji formed at 11:45 ET, suggesting indecision before the final leg down.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20 and 50-period) are in a steep bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward trend. Longer-term 50/100/200-period daily moving averages are yet to cross below price, but the current 24-hour move suggests that a bearish crossover is likely in the coming days. If the 50-day MA crosses below the 100-day MA, it would signal a more established bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD has been in bearish territory for the past 12 hours, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line and the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum. RSI has moved below 30, indicating an oversold condition, though this should not be taken as a strong reversal signal without a convincing bullish candle and increase in volume. The bearish divergence between RSI and price in the late hours of the session suggests a continuation of the downward move is more probable than an immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the last 8 hours, reflecting rising volatility. Price has traded below the lower band for much of the period, especially after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. A contraction in the band width is unlikely unless a strong bullish reversal takes place, which at this stage appears improbable given the volume and price action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover have spiked in the last 6 hours, especially around 03:30 ET and 12:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. The final leg down from 0.1121 to 0.1081 was accompanied by a volume surge of over 31,795.9, the largest of the day. This suggests strong conviction in the bearish move and could indicate that institutional or large-capacity traders are selling off. A divergence between price and turnover—seen briefly at 01:45 ET—was quickly resolved with increased selling pressure, confirming the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing from 0.1153 to 0.1057, the 38.2% retracement at 0.1126 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.1090 are critical levels. The price briefly bounced at 0.1090–0.1092 multiple times but failed to hold above it. This suggests that 0.1090 could serve as a key psychological and Fibonacci level to watch for potential support or a failed test leading to further declines.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a backtesting strategy were to be applied based on the above analysis, one could consider a short-biased approach that triggers entries on a bearish engulfing candle or a close below the 0.1141 level with confirmation of rising volume. Stops could be placed slightly above the 0.1141–0.1143 resistance zone. Targets would align with the Fibonacci levels at 0.1090 and 0.1080. Given the RSI’s current oversold condition and the bearish MACD divergence, this strategy could include a time-based exit at the 24-hour mark unless a strong bullish reversal occurs, in which case a trailing stop might be used to lock in profits.