Synapse/USDC Market Overview – October 11, 2025

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• SYNUSDC traded in a downtrend from 0.107 to 0.0742, with sharp declines after 19:30 ET and consolidation from 00:00 to 09:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 19:30 ET and compressed during consolidation phases.
• High volume spikes occurred during major price drops (e.g., 19:30–20:30 ET), confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI reached oversold territory around 0.074 and showed potential for a rebound, but lacks bullish confirmation.
• Bullish reversal patterns (e.g., hammers at 0.0742) suggest limited near-term upside, pending volume confirmation.

At 12:00 ET on October 11, 2025, Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) opened at 0.0782, reaching a high of 0.107 and a low of 0.0742, closing at 0.0782 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume amounted to 2,468,984.5 and notional turnover was approximately $660,000. Price experienced a pronounced bearish trend, with a sharp drop after 19:30 ET and subsequent consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish continuation structure after breaking down past key psychological levels, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30–20:00 ET confirming the downtrend. A hammer pattern at 0.0742 in the early hours of October 11 suggested a potential short-term bottom, but lacked sufficient volume for confirmation. Resistance clustered near 0.0795 and 0.0805, while support levels are forming at 0.074–0.076.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.078) and 50-period MA (0.0774) confirmed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the trend. The 200-period MA is at 0.0755, indicating the current price is slightly below the long-term average, suggesting further consolidation or a potential test of that level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory around 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory (around 30) at 00:00–01:00 ET, hinting at a potential bounce. However, without strong volume or bullish reversal patterns, this may be a false signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 19:30–20:30 ET window as price dropped into the lower band. Since then, volatility has contracted, with price consolidating near the middle band. The narrowing bands suggest a potential breakout, but the bias remains bearish unless a strong bullish close breaks the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, confirming the bearish breakout. Subsequent volume has been modest and uneven, with no clear divergence between price and volume. The notional turnover was highest during the 21:30–22:00 ET period, coinciding with the steepest drop.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 19:30–00:00 ET decline, key retracement levels are 38.2% at 0.0785 and 61.8% at 0.0758. Price is currently hovering near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a test or consolidation before a resumption of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy hinges on bearish breakout and retracement dynamics, aligning with the Fibonacci levels observed. A trade entry would be triggered on a break of the 61.8% retracement level (0.0758) with a stop above the 38.2% level (0.0785), aiming for a target at 0.0723. The MACD and RSI divergence would act as confirmation signals, with volume playing a key role in validating trend strength.