Synapse/USDC Market Overview: Bullish Breakout, Mixed Follow-Through

• Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) rose to a 24-hour high of $0.1373 amid a bullish breakout in late ET hours.
• Price retracted to key support at $0.1365–0.1367, with mixed follow-through from buyers.
• Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with total notional turnover exceeding $4.5M.
• RSI and MACD show moderate momentum, but divergences hint at potential consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on September 18, 2025, Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) opened at $0.1367, hit a high of $0.1373, and closed at $0.1362 after a low of $0.1346. Total volume was 507,444.9 tokens, with notional turnover exceeding $4.5M in the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a clear bullish breakout from a descending consolidation pattern that had been in place since early morning ET. A strong candle closed at $0.1373 after a high of $0.1378, forming a hammer-like reversal pattern near the upper band of recent Bollinger Bands. However, follow-through was mixed, with a large bearish candle forming after 15:00 ET, pulling price back to key support levels at $0.1365–0.1367. A doji formed at the close of the day, indicating indecision among traders ahead of the next 24-hour window.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) are both below current price levels, supporting the bullish breakout narrative. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at ~$0.1365, aligning with the immediate support zone. The 200-day SMA is slightly below the 50-day, indicating a potential period of consolidation or sideways trading if current levels fail to hold.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong positive divergence overnight, with the histogram expanding during the breakout phase before contracting as bearish pressure emerged. RSI reached a high of ~60, indicating moderate bullish momentum but not yet overbought. A pullback to the 50–55 range would likely indicate a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. Divergence between price and RSI after 21:00 ET suggests caution ahead of the next candle.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with price touching the upper band at $0.1378 during the breakout phase. Price then fell into a tight range within the bands, ending the day near the middle band at ~$0.1368. The recent contraction in volatility following the expansion suggests potential for a new breakout or reversal in either direction, depending on volume and momentum follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout phase, with a 15-minute candle at 19:30 ET showing over 10k contracts traded at a high of $0.1362. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a peak in the $400k–$500k range during the same period. Divergences between volume and price occurred after 19:45 ET, with declining volume accompanying lower highs, suggesting weakening momentum. A confirmation candle above $0.1375 would need to come with elevated volume to validate a continuation of the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing (from $0.1367 to $0.1378), price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.1371. A breakdown below the 38.2% level at $0.1367 would invalidate the bullish breakout, while a close above $0.1375 would target the 78.6% retracement at $0.1378. On the daily chart, the key 50% retracement level aligns with the 50-day SMA, offering a critical pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakout pattern and divergence in momentum indicators, a possible backtest strategy could involve a long entry at a close above $0.1370 with a stop below $0.1360. This setup would aim to capture continuation of the bullish breakout while limiting downside risk. The target would be the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $0.1378, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1. This approach aligns with the observed volatility and volume dynamics, particularly during the breakout and retest of key support levels.