Synapse/USDC Market Overview

• Price surged 7.5% from 0.1134 to 0.1186 on elevated volume during the 24-hour window.
• A bullish breakout above 0.116 marked a turning point, with strong follow-through at 0.119–0.12.
• RSI hit overbought levels after the morning rally, indicating potential near-term pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, suggesting a phase of heightened volatility.
• A high-volume candle at 0.1197 confirmed short-term bullish momentum.

Synapse/USDC (SYNUSDC) opened at 0.1134 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1176 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1204 and a low of 0.1134. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 598,845.7, with a turnover of $70,400. The pair exhibited a pronounced bullish bias during the early trading session, forming a key bullish breakout from a descending trendline.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish continuation during the early morning hours, particularly between 05:00 and 07:00 ET, where price surged from 0.1175 to 0.1203, forming a series of bullish engulfing patterns. A doji appeared near the high at 0.1204 around 06:45 ET, signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. Key support levels emerged at 0.1174 and 0.1165, with 0.1145 acting as a critical long-term floor. A bearish reversal formation became visible in the late afternoon as price pulled back to 0.1174, with a bearish spinning top candle at 15:00 ET suggesting indecision.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the morning surge, with price moving above the upper band on multiple occasions. The expansion indicates a period of heightened volatility. Price has since retracted toward the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The narrowing of the bands later in the afternoon hinted at a potential breakout or breakdown, depending on the direction of the next move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish divergence around 04:45 ET, confirming the morning rally. The 20-period MA remained above the 50-period MA until 14:45 ET, when price began to weaken. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was comfortably above the 200-period MA, reinforcing the broader bullish bias, though the 100-period MA began to approach the 50-period MA, hinting at a potential shift in momentum.

MACD and RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive surge during the morning rally, with the line crossing above the signal line at 05:30 ET. This confirmed a short-term bullish momentum shift. The RSI peaked at 78, entering overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback in the near term. A bearish divergence in the RSI became apparent in the late afternoon as price continued to consolidate near 0.1174 while the RSI dipped below 60, indicating possible weakness in the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high (0.1204) and low (0.1147) on the 15-minute chart, key levels include 0.1176 (38.2%), 0.1164 (50%), and 0.1151 (61.8%). Price tested the 38.2% and 50% levels during the afternoon pullback, with 0.1164 acting as a short-term pivot. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 0.1151 could become a critical support area if the current bearish pullback continues into the next 24-hour window.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the morning rally, peaking at over 45,000 on several 15-minute intervals. A high-volume bar at 0.1197 (07:15 ET) confirmed the bullish breakout from a key resistance area. However, volume began to wane in the afternoon, with the 13:30–15:45 ET period showing a bearish divergence in volume as price fell but turnover remained subdued. This divergence suggests a weakening in bullish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves using a combination of the 20-period and 50-period moving average crossovers on the 15-minute chart, in conjunction with RSI divergences to confirm momentum shifts. A long entry would be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI shows bullish divergence. A short entry would be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI shows bearish divergence. Stop-loss and take-profit levels would be set based on recent Fibonacci levels and key support/resistance. This strategy would aim to capture intra-day trends during periods of high volatility, such as the morning rally observed today. The current technical setup supports this approach, with multiple entries having been available during the 05:00–07:00 ET window.