Synapse/USDC Market Overview – 2025-11-03

• Synapse/USDC declines 9.1% in 24 hours, closing at 0.0672 from 0.0748.
• Heavy volume spikes observed during the sharp sell-off, especially after 03:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum, with price testing key Fibonacci support levels.
• Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility, with price falling below the 20-period lower band.
• A potential short-term support level appears forming near 0.0661–0.0663.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-02, Synapse/USDC opened at 0.0743 and traded as high as 0.0762 before falling to a 24-hour low of 0.0582. At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, it closed at 0.0672. Total 15-minute OHLCV data over the 24-hour window shows a total volume of 8,024,251.1 and a total turnover of 524,717.8 USDC. Price appears to be in a strong bearish phase, with significant volatility and declining momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a descending broadening pattern over the last 24 hours, with sharp bearish swings after 03:00 ET. The most notable bearish move occurred between 03:45 and 05:00 ET, where price dropped from 0.0716 to 0.0685 amid surging volume. A potential support cluster appears to be forming between 0.0661 and 0.0663. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible around 06:00–07:30 ET, suggesting continued downside pressure in the near term.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period MA currently sits above 0.0677, while the 20-period MA is at 0.0672, suggesting price is nearing a potential short-term equilibrium. Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing from 0.0582 to 0.0673 shows price currently at ~61.8% of that retracement, indicating a possible support level at 0.0643 if the downtrend continues.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line has been negative for most of the past 12 hours and shows bearish momentum with the signal line below it. RSI has dropped below 30 since 06:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions, although the price continues lower, indicating a bearish divergence. This suggests the oversold zone may not be a reliable entry point for longs, and traders should remain cautious.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased sharply since the early morning session, with the Bollinger Bands widening. Price has closed below the 20-period lower band for most of the last six hours, confirming the bearish momentum and increased risk of further downside. A contraction in the bands may signal a potential reversal, but this would require a clear move back above the 20-period MA and into overbought territory on RSI.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume has spiked significantly during the sharp declines, particularly between 03:45 and 06:00 ET. The highest volume occurred during the 03:45–04:00 ET candle, with 35,325.8 in volume and a turnover of 2,467.9 USDC. However, price has continued lower despite the increased turnover, indicating bearish conviction. A divergence between price and turnover is not currently observed, suggesting the sell-off is being supported by large-volume participants.

Forward-Looking View

The next 24 hours will likely see further testing of the 0.0661–0.0663 support level. A break below this could target the 0.0643–0.0636 range, especially if RSI remains below 30 and volume remains elevated. Traders should monitor for signs of a reversal, including a rejection of key support levels or a shift in momentum on the MACD.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the provided text focuses on using RSI as the core indicator to signal entry and exit points—buying when RSI < 30 and exiting when RSI ≥ 50. This aligns with the recent behavior of Synapse/USDC, which has spent much of the last 24 hours in oversold territory. A backtest over the 2022–2025 period using daily closes and applying the same rules could provide valuable insight into the efficacy of this strategy in the current market environment. However, the accuracy of the backtest depends on identifying the correct ticker symbol for the asset being analyzed.