Swiss Voters Poised to Thwart 50% Inheritance Tax Push

Swiss voters are expected to reject a proposed inheritance tax on ultra-wealthy citizens in a national vote scheduled for November 30. A recent poll by Tamedia/20 Minuten shows 75% of respondents oppose the plan, up from 67% a month ago. The measure, backed by the Young Socialists, would impose a 50% tax on assets exceeding 50 million Swiss francs, with the proceeds directed toward climate initiatives. A separate proposal on military service for women is also likely to fail.

France's Dutreil inheritance tax break has drawn sharp criticism after costing the government over €5.5 billion in lost revenue last year. The state auditor, Cour des Comptes, called the regime "overly generous" and urged reforms to prevent further financial strain. The tax break, which allows heirs to pay as little as 5.6% on inherited businesses, has been widely used by family-owned companies, drawing calls for stricter conditions.

The Swiss Federal Finance Administration has announced plans to issue 4.5 billion Swiss francs in bonds in 2026, up from 4 billion in 2025. The move accounts for maturing debt and aims to support the country's financial stability. The U.S.-Switzerland trade deal, meanwhile, has sparked domestic debate, with critics calling it a "surrender agreement" to U.S. pressure, despite economic minister Guy Parmelin defending the terms according to reports.

Investor Reactions and Strategic Moves

Swiss insurance and reinsurance companies are showing mixed reactions to recent developments. Zurich Insurance confirmed it remains on track to meet its 2025–2027 financial targets, including a core earnings per share growth rate of over 9% and cash remittances of more than $19 billion. The company did not introduce new targets at its Investor Day event, but reiterated its focus on the Middle Market, Retail, and Farmers segments.

UBS Group has stated its intention to continue operating from Switzerland despite reports of considering a move to the U.S. to comply with new capital rules. The bank's management emphasized its commitment to operating as a global bank out of Switzerland, though it evaluated contingency plans amid regulatory pressures according to management.

Tax Policy Debates and Financial Strategies

The French auditor's report on the Dutreil tax break highlights its impact on government revenue and calls for tighter controls. The report estimates the cost at €5.5 billion, significantly higher than previously reported figures. The auditor suggests extending the period during which heirs must retain company control and limiting the types of assets eligible for the tax break. These changes could reshape how family-owned businesses pass on wealth in France.

Switzerland's upcoming inheritance tax vote is part of a broader conversation about wealth redistribution in developed economies. Similar debates are occurring in other countries, including France, where policymakers face pressure to reform inheritance laws amid rising inequality. The Swiss poll results indicate a strong public preference for preserving the current system, despite arguments for progressive wealth taxation.

Market Implications and Future Outlook

Swiss Re, a major reinsurer, has reaffirmed its financial outlook for 2025, maintaining its net income target of over $4.4 billion. The company highlighted strong performance in its property and casualty (P&C) segment and a Solvency ratio of 268%, well above its target band. The firm also pointed to a 4.3% reinvestment yield in Q3, up from 4.1% in 2025, which supports future income generation and potential share repurchases.

Switzerland's bond issuance plans for 2026 are part of its broader strategy to manage public debt. The government will hold monthly auctions, with optional sessions in October and December, allowing flexibility in its funding approach. The Swiss National Bank noted that the Confederation's bond portfolio is expected to grow by 1 billion francs in 2026.

As Switzerland continues to navigate domestic policy debates and international trade negotiations, investors are closely watching for signals about economic resilience and regulatory direction. The outcomes of the November 30 vote and the implementation of new tax measures will likely influence both domestic and global market perceptions of Swiss financial stability.