Sweden (Jan) CPIF excl. energy mom actual: -0.4% vs 2% previous; est 2%

Sweden (Jan) CPIF excl. energy mom actual: -0.4% vs 2% previous; est 2%

Sweden’s Core CPIF Excluding Energy Surprises with Sharp Decline in January 2026

Sweden’s core consumer price index (CPIF) excluding energy fell by 0.4% month-over-month (mom) in January 2026, significantly below the 2% decline estimated by analysts and the 2% rise recorded in December 2025. This marks an unexpected reversal in inflationary trends, underscoring the impact of the Riksbank’s aggressive rate-cutting cycle and broader economic adjustments.

The CPIF ex energy index, a key inflation metric for the European Central Bank, stood at 254.91 points in December 2025, up from 254.09 points the prior month. However, the January decline suggests weakening price pressures, potentially reflecting the cumulative effect of 150 basis points of rate cuts by the Riksbank since late 2024. The Riksbank had previously projected inflation to stabilize near 2%, but the actual reading of -0.4% mom indicates further downward momentum.

The drop aligns with broader signs of economic recalibration. While consumer confidence and housing market activity have improved, household spending dipped 3.7% in December 2025, and services activity eased to a five-month low. These mixed signals highlight the challenge of balancing growth and price stability.

The Riksbank faces mounting pressure to continue easing policy, with markets pricing in a 20-basis-point cut at its upcoming meeting. A weaker Swedish krona (SEK), which has depreciated to 2021 levels against the euro, may further complicate inflation dynamics, particularly given Sweden's export-dependent economy and risks from potential U.S. trade restrictions.

Looking ahead, CPIF ex energy is projected to trend toward 263.13 points by 2027, but near-term volatility remains likely. The Riksbank's focus on supporting growth— coupled with base effects from last year's energy price swings—suggests a cautious, dovish stance in the coming months.

(https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/core-consumer-prices): Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/core-consumer-prices
(https://think.ing.com/articles/swedens-riksbank-rate-cut-cycle-nears-its-end-as-economy-shows-signs-of-life/): ING, https://think.ing.com/articles/swedens-riksbank-rate-cut-cycle-nears-its-end-as-economy-shows-signs-of-life/