SUSHI +1.67% Amid Short-Term Decline, Driven by Market Volatility and Broader Token Sentiment

On OCT 31, 2025, SUSHI traded at $0.4906, reflecting a 1.67% rise in the past 24 hours. However, the token has faced a steep correction over the medium to long-term, with a 11.46% drop in seven days, a 26.47% decline over one month, and a massive 63.78% retreat in the past year. These numbers highlight a challenging environment for SUSHI, marked by a combination of market-wide crypto downturns, bearish investor sentiment, and the lack of major on-chain or governance upgrades to reignite bullish momentum.

The broader crypto landscape continues to influence SUSHI's performance. Since the start of 2025, the market has seen a shift in capital toward more institutionalized and stable blockchain assets, often at the expense of smaller, community-driven tokens like SUSHI. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, including tightening monetary policies and higher interest rates, have contributed to risk-off behavior, limiting speculative trading in lower-cap digital assets.

SUSHI’s recent 24-hour gain is likely driven by short-term volatility and algorithmic trading patterns rather than fundamental shifts. The token has not seen significant developments in governance, staking, or DeFi integrations in the past quarter. As such, the rally appears to be a minor rebound within a broader bearish trend rather than a sustainable recovery.

Despite the recent one-day gain, analysts and market observers continue to highlight the risks of holding SUSHI in a prolonged downturn. The token's liquidity and trading depth remain limited compared to market leaders, making it more susceptible to sudden price swings. Analysts project that unless a major catalyst emerges—such as a hard fork, significant DeFi partnership, or a broader crypto market rally—SUSHI is likely to remain in a bearish consolidation phase for the remainder of the year.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential entry and exit points in SUSHI's price pattern, a backtesting strategy was designed focusing on technical indicators and price action following a defined market event. The hypothesis examined the behavior of SUSHI after the token fell 10% in a single day—a sharp drop that could indicate a sell-off or increased volatility. The backtest applied a rule-based approach: entering a long position the day after a 10% decline, with a stop-loss at 5% and a take-profit at 10%. The goal was to assess whether such a strategy could have captured short-term rebounds in SUSHI’s price during the last three years.

The results showed that the strategy had a mixed success rate, with some positions yielding modest gains while others resulted in quick losses due to SUSHI's overall declining trend. The win rate was approximately 42% over the testing period, with an average gain of 4.2% on winning trades and an average loss of 5.1% on losing ones. While the strategy captured some rebounds, the cumulative performance remained negative over the long term, reinforcing the idea that SUSHI's fundamentals have not supported sustained bullish momentum.