Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: A Binary $133B Catalyst for Friday

The market's focus shifts to Friday as the Supreme Court is scheduled to issue rulings. While the court's agenda is not disclosed in advance, the timing and the case's expedited handling make a decision on President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs a distinct possibility. This is a binary event with potentially massive financial consequences.

The core of the case is whether the president has the authority to impose the 10-50% tariffs on most imports under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court's November arguments revealed significant skepticism from both liberal and conservative justices about the administration's legal argument. If the Court rules the tariffs unlawful, the financial fallout could be immediate and severe.

The scale of the potential payout is staggering. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, over $133.5 billion in tariffs assessed through December 14 would need to be refunded to importers. That figure represents the total duty collected under the IEEPA authority since the tariffs began last February. The ruling's exact mechanics remain unclear-whether refunds would be ordered directly by the Court or left to lower courts or the federal government-but the liability is now a concrete number.

The odds of this scenario unfolding are far from certain. Online betting markets currently give the administration a roughly 25-30% chance of prevailing. That implies a significant 70-75% probability that the Court will side against the tariffs. This high-stakes uncertainty creates a classic event-driven setup: a clear, high-impact catalyst with a binary outcome that could move markets materially in either direction.

Saudi Market Opening: A Structural Shift with Near-Term Liquidity Effects

The Saudi capital market is set for a structural shift that will directly impact liquidity. The Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) has approved amendments to open its main market to all foreign investors directly, effective February 1. This move eliminates the Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) category and swap agreements, allowing global investors unrestricted access.

The reform aims to support investment inflows and improve market liquidity. By scrapping the QFI rule, which previously required international investors to have direct and consistent market access, the CMA is broadening the base of eligible participants. This is part of the kingdom's broader economic diversification plan, which includes attracting foreign capital through initiatives like exchange-traded funds with Asian partners.

The immediate liquidity effect is likely to be positive. International investors held 590 billion riyals ($157 billion) in the Saudi capital market at the end of last year. The CMA expects the new rules to attract additional international investments, building on a trend of growth in foreign ownership. This direct access could accelerate the flow of capital into the market, enhancing trading volumes and depth.

For investors, this is a clear catalyst for improved market access. The change follows an interim phase that simplified account-opening procedures for some foreign investors, signaling a gradual but decisive move toward an international marketplace. The setup is straightforward: a structural rule change that removes friction for foreign money, with the near-term goal of boosting liquidity.

BAAN Holding's Capital Increase: A Narrow, Company-Specific Event

The capital increase for BAAN Holding is a procedural, company-specific event with a clear binary outcome. The Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) has already approved the request, issuing its resolution on December 24, 2025. This approval allows the company to increase its capital from SAR 315 million to SAR 619.97 million by issuing up to 304.97 million new ordinary shares.

The increase is directly tied to two real estate asset purchases. The company must complete these transactions by a deadline of December 28, 2025, a date that has since passed. However, the company has secured an extension, pushing the revised longstop date to March 1, 2026. The CMA's approval is a critical procedural step, confirming the company met the legal requirements under the Capital Market Law. It is explicitly not an endorsement of the deal's strategic merits or feasibility.

For investors, the immediate catalyst is the upcoming Extraordinary General Assembly meeting. Shareholders must vote on the capital increase, and they are advised to carefully review the shareholder circular, which will detail the transaction and associated risks. The outcome hinges on shareholder approval, making this a binary vote on a specific corporate action. The broader market impact is negligible; this is a narrow event confined to BAAN Holding's capital structure and its real estate acquisitions.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and What to Watch

The immediate next steps for each event are clear, and the key metrics to watch will confirm or contradict the initial analysis.

For the Supreme Court, the catalyst is Friday itself. The court has scheduled an opinion day, and a ruling on the tariffs is a distinct possibility. The key metric is the decision's language. A negative ruling would trigger immediate debate on the mechanics of the $133.5 billion refund and likely cause a sharp repricing of global trade stocks and currencies. The setup is binary, but the market's reaction will depend on whether the Court's opinion provides clarity or leaves logistical questions open.

For Saudi Arabia, the catalyst is the February 1 implementation date. The key metrics to watch are market data from that point forward. Look for evidence of foreign inflows and liquidity changes, particularly in large-cap and ETF-listed stocks. The CMA's goal is to support investment inflows and improve market liquidity, so increased trading volumes and a broader base of foreign ownership would signal the reform is working. The current figure of 590 billion riyals ($157 billion) held by international investors provides a baseline for measuring any acceleration.

For BAAN Holding, the catalyst is the upcoming Extraordinary General Assembly meeting. The key metric is the shareholder circular. Investors must track its publication for details on the capital increase vote and any updates on the real estate transaction deadlines. The circular will contain the risk factors and transaction specifics needed for an informed vote. The company's extension to March 1, 2026 for completing its asset purchases is a critical timeline to monitor, as failure to meet it could derail the entire plan.