U.S. Supply Chain Restructuring and the Rise of High-Growth Independent Last-Mile Delivery Firms

The U.S. supply chain landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by geopolitical tensions, trade policy recalibrations, and a renewed emphasis on resilience. As companies pivot away from traditional sourcing hubs like China toward nearshoring in Vietnam, India, and Mexico, the ripple effects are reshaping logistics networks-and creating fertile ground for independent last-mile delivery firms. For investors, this transformation presents a compelling opportunity to identify high-growth players navigating the challenges and capitalizing on the structural changes in the sector.

The Drivers of Supply Chain Restructuring

The U.S.-China trade war and escalating tariffs have accelerated a strategic realignment of global supply chains. According to a report by the Institute of International Strategic Studies, companies are increasingly prioritizing "resilience over cost efficiency," redirecting manufacturing and sourcing to mitigate risks from geopolitical volatility and pandemic-era disruptions. This shift has led to a surge in cargo volumes at Southeast Asian ports like Vietnam's Cat Lai and Thailand's Laem Chabang, though infrastructure bottlenecks and inconsistent regulatory frameworks across ASEAN nations complicate cross-border operations.

Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies have destabilized domestic logistics networks. A 2025 analysis by Tradlinx highlights that tariffs have driven widespread instability, with many logistics firms closing facilities or filing for bankruptcy due to declining international shipment volumes and rising operational costs. These disruptions have intensified demand for agile, cost-effective last-mile solutions, particularly as e-commerce continues to expand.

The Last-Mile Delivery Boom and Its Challenges

The last-mile delivery segment-accounting for 53% of total shipping costs in 2024-has become a critical battleground for logistics firms. A 2025 industry report by Smartroutes notes that labor costs alone represent 50-60% of last-mile expenses, with driver shortages exacerbating financial pressures. Yet, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.8%, reaching $373.92 billion by 2033, as e-commerce demand for same-day and next-day delivery surges.

Independent logistics firms are uniquely positioned to address these challenges. For instance, companies like GoBolt and Onfleet are leveraging AI-driven route optimization and electric vehicle (EV) fleets to reduce costs and improve efficiency. GoBolt's 2025 State of Logistics Report underscores that 65% of logistics leaders view carrier diversification as a strategic imperative for cost reduction, while 77% emphasize the importance of tracking last-mile performance.

Case Studies: High-Growth Independent Firms

RXO has demonstrated resilience amid market turbulence. In Q3 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $14 million-a significant improvement from $243 million in Q3 2024-while total revenue rose to $1.4 billion. Strategic cost-cutting initiatives and a focus on profitable growth have enabled RXO to maintain a 2.3% adjusted EBITDA margin, with management projecting $20–30 million in EBITDA for Q4 2025.

GoBolt is another standout, with its State of Logistics Report highlighting its emphasis on sustainability and returns management. The firm's EV coverage and route optimization strategies align with growing consumer demand for eco-friendly delivery options. Additionally, 52% of brands surveyed by GoBolt cited returns management as a top value-added service needed from 3PL providers, a niche GoBolt is actively addressing.

Onfleet has carved out a niche in AI-driven delivery solutions, offering predictive ETAs and auto-dispatching to streamline operations. Its platform's focus on real-time tracking and customer experience aligns with the 91% of shoppers who actively monitor their packages.

Strategic Opportunities for Investors

The U.S. logistics market is forecasted to grow from $2.01 trillion in 2024 to $3.15 trillion by 2033, driven by e-commerce expansion and infrastructure investments. Independent firms that prioritize technological innovation-such as autonomous vehicles, drone delivery, and AI-driven analytics-are best positioned to capture this growth. For example, Aurora Innovation's autonomous operations in Texas and Uber Eats' drone partnerships with Flytrex signal a shift toward automation, which could alleviate driver shortages and reduce costs.

However, investors must remain cautious. The sector faces headwinds, including rising fuel prices, urban congestion, and regulatory uncertainties. Firms that fail to adapt to these challenges risk being outcompeted by more agile players.

Conclusion

The U.S. supply chain restructuring is a double-edged sword: while it disrupts traditional logistics models, it also creates openings for independent firms to innovate and scale. Companies like RXO, GoBolt, and Onfleet exemplify how strategic cost management, technological adoption, and customer-centric approaches can drive growth in a volatile market. For investors, the key lies in identifying firms that not only navigate current challenges but also anticipate future trends-such as sustainability and automation-to secure long-term value.