SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• RAREUSDT closed at 0.0325 after a 24-hour low of 0.0313.
• Volume surged to 12.9M units, but turnover was modest at $418k.
• A bearish breakdown from the 0.0326 resistance failed to confirm, with price retreating toward 0.0317.

SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at 0.0326 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0325 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 0.0329 and a low of 0.0313. Total volume reached 12,866,064.1 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $417,502. Price action displayed a broad consolidation, with failed attempts to push above the 0.0326 psychological level.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows multiple rejections at the 0.0326 resistance level, suggesting a potential short-term ceiling. A key support at 0.0317 was tested multiple times, most notably at 20:45 and 15:45 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 20:45 candle, with price closing at 0.0317 after a high of 0.0319. A morning reversal candle around 09:45 ET hinted at a potential rebound, but buyers failed to sustain the move above 0.0326. A doji appeared near 0.0319 in the late afternoon, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is currently at 0.0321, just above the 50-period MA at 0.0319, indicating a slight short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0324, crossing slightly above the 100-period MA at 0.0322 and the 200-period MA at 0.0318. The price is hovering near the 50/100 MA zone, suggesting a potential sideways or consolidative bias in the near-term.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines have remained negative throughout the day, with a recent bearish crossover occurring at 16:00 ET. The histogram has been flattening, suggesting waning bearish momentum. RSI currently sits at 44, near the midpoint, with no clear overbought or oversold readings. A potential divergence between RSI and price appears near 0.0317 as price declined but RSI remained relatively flat, hinting at possible short-term bottoming.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Band at 0.0313–0.0315, indicating a period of low volatility. A sharp contraction in the band width occurred from 22:00 to 05:00 ET, followed by a mild expansion, suggesting a potential breakout attempt. However, the price has struggled to break above the middle band of 0.0319–0.0321, suggesting the expansion may not be strong enough to trigger a directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2.3M units at 20:45 ET, coinciding with the bearish engulfing pattern and the breakdown to 0.0317. This move saw a notional turnover of approximately $74,000, one of the highest in the 24-hour period. However, volume began to diminish after 06:00 ET, with a corresponding drop in turnover. Divergence appears in the afternoon, where price fell but volume remained muted, signaling weak conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the key 0.0329–0.0313 swing indicate a 61.8% retracement at 0.0321, which aligns with the current price. A 38.2% retracement at 0.0318 has been tested multiple times and may serve as a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 0.0326–0.0313 swing shows a 61.8% level at 0.0321, reinforcing the potential significance of the 0.0321 level as a pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD “Golden Cross” has historically shown mixed results for RAREUSDT. Over 50 such events from 2022 to 2025, the strategy generated an average cumulative return of +5.9% within the first 9 to 10 trading days, but this faded sharply, turning negative by day 20 and dropping to -1.5% by day 30. Win rates ranged from 40–48%, barely outperforming a random strategy. While the signal showed some short-term edge, it lacked consistency and statistical significance (p > 0.05), suggesting the need for additional filters such as trend confirmation or volume spikes. Investors may consider this information when evaluating MACD-based strategies, especially in volatile or low-volume environments like RAREUSDT.