Supernus Pharmaceuticals' Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on Onapgo Demand, Supply Constraints, and Zurzuvae Sales Force Expansion

Date of Call: November 4, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $192.1M in Q3 2025, compared to $175.7M in Q3 2024
• EPS: -$0.80 per diluted share (GAAP loss) in Q3 2025, compared to $0.69 per diluted share earnings in Q3 2024 (GAAP net loss $45.1M vs net earnings $38.5M)
• Operating Margin: GAAP operating loss of $60.2M in Q3 2025, compared to operating earnings of $40.9M in Q3 2024

Guidance:

• Total revenue for full year 2025 expected to be $685M–$705M (raised from $670M–$700M)
• Assumes combined Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR net sales of $75M–$85M (up from $65M–$75M)
• Combined R&D and SG&A expected to be $505M–$530M (unchanged)
• GAAP operating loss expected $65M–$75M (improved from prior $70M–$80M)
• Non-GAAP operating earnings expected $125M–$145M (raised from $105M–$135M)

Business Commentary:

• Strong Operating Results and Growth Products:
• Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported revenue of $192.1 million for Q3 2025, up from $175.7 million in the same quarter last year, with approximately 78% contributed by four growth products.

• The growth was driven by the launch and demand for Onapgo, Zurzuvae collaboration revenues, and strong performance by Qelbree and GOCOVRI.

• Onapgo Supply Constraints and Demand:

• Onapgo generated net sales of $6.8 million in Q3 2025, up from $1.6 million in the previous quarter, with over 1,300 enrollment forms submitted by more than 450 prescribers.

• The high demand led to supply constraints, impacting the company's ability to fully meet patient needs due to supplier constraints.

• Zurzuvae Collaboration Revenue Growth:

• Zurzuvae collaboration revenue was $20.2 million in Q3 2025, representing approximately 2 months of sales post-acquisition.

• The revenue increase is attributed to a 150% rise in U.S. sales compared to the same period last year and 19% growth compared to Q2 2025.

• Qelbree and GOCOVRI Performance:

• Qelbree achieved a 31% increase in net sales and 23% growth in prescriptions compared to the same period last year, with healthy growth in both adult and pediatric segments.
• GOCOVRI net sales grew by 15% in Q3 2025, driven by prescription and prescriber growth, maintaining strong momentum from the first half of the year.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • CEO: "Supernus delivered strong operating results"; management highlighted momentum from four growth products accounting for ~78% of revenues, Qelbree net sales +31% YOY, Zurzuvae collaboration revenues of $20.2M, and the CFO raised full-year revenue and non-GAAP guidance while noting integration of Sage is on track.

Q&A:

• Question from Lin Tsai (Jefferies LLC): If there were no Onapgo supply constraints, how many additional patients/sales would you have had this quarter and should we expect Q4 to be softer because of the supply issue?
  Response: Demand has exceeded expectations; ~400+ patients currently on therapy; company is prioritizing existing patients, supply constraints are fluid and timing/impact on Q4 is uncertain.

• Question from Stacy Ku (TD Cowen): What are the rate-limiting steps and timing to resolve Onapgo supply constraints; will unmet demand be absorbed by competitors; and how should we think about Onapgo margins?
  Response: Constraint is cartridge filling capacity at the CRO (not the pump); timing is uncertain as the situation is fluid while inventory is preserved for current patients; gross margins should approximate APOKYN margins.

• Question from David Amsellem (Piper Sandler): How much of submitted PEFs/patients do you expect to retain versus lose to competitors; how many reps are detailing Zurzuvae and do you plan sales-force expansion or acquiring the other 50% of the asset?
  Response: Too early to quantify patient loss but management believes many will return once supply is restored; rep count not disclosed and any sales-force expansion would be coordinated with Biogen; open to discussing acquiring remaining 50% but no commitment.

• Question from Pavan Patel (BofA Securities): What is current and steady-state gross-to-net for Onapgo given a Medicare mix (is ~35% a good estimate) and what is the expected annual cost per patient; and what BD targets/synergies are you focusing on post-Sage (women's health, CNS, rare)? Also how do you position Onapgo vs Vyalev — what niche are you targeting?
  Response: Estimate annual cost per patient ~$100K–$105K; gross-to-net is early to define and may be somewhat below ~35%; BD priority is commercial-stage assets across CNS, women's health and rare diseases to leverage existing infrastructure; Onapgo is positioned for patients who benefit from continuous apomorphine infusion and via differentiated mechanism plus strong service.

• Question from Annabel Samimy (Stifel): Are Onapgo enrollees previously on apomorphine; can APOKYN bridge patients while you ramp supply; is safety resonating with physicians; and any resistance or timing from Biogen on OB/GYN/Zurzuvae sales-force expansion?
  Response: About 15%–17% of Onapgo enrollees had prior APOKYN exposure; APOKYN injections are not equivalent to continuous infusion so they may only partially bridge some patients; physicians are driven by efficacy and quality-of-life data; Zurzuvae sales-force expansion is evaluated with Biogen and timing is undecided.

Contradiction Point 1

Onapgo Patient Demand and Supply Constraints

It involves differing expectations regarding patient demand and the ability to meet it due to supply constraints, which could impact revenue projections and market expectations.

If all patient demand for Onapgo was met, how many additional patients would have received the treatment and what would sales have been? - [Lin Tsai](Jefferies LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Onapgo has exceeded expectations in demand and physician reaction has been extremely positive. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

Can you provide updates on the net pricing dynamics and adult launch progress for Qelbree, and how do the sales and reimbursement timelines for ONAPGO compare to AbbVie's Vyalev? - [Stacy Ku](TD Cowen)

2025Q2: By late July, slightly more than 200 patients were on ONAPGO. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Zurzuvae Sales Force Expansion

It involves differing expectations regarding sales force expansion for Zurzuvae, which could impact revenue growth and market penetration.

Will Zurzuvae's expansion persist or be absorbed by competitors? How many reps detail the product, and is there potential to acquire the remaining 50% of the asset? - [Stacy Ku](TD Cowen, Research Division)

2025Q3: We have expanded the sales force for Zurzuvae several months ago, and we've seen opportunities from that recent expansion. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

Did any one-time events drive ZURZUVAE's Q2 sales growth? What is the peak sales potential for future indications? - [John Robert Cox](Jefferies)

2025Q2: So we're thinking about the possibilities of some expansion, but we haven't made a decision on it. - [Jack A. Khattar](CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Onapgo Supply Constraints and Market Demand

It directly impacts expectations regarding the supply and demand of a key product, potentially influencing company revenue and investor expectations.

If all patient demand for Onapgo were met, how many additional patients would have received treatment? What would sales have been? - [Lin Tsai](Jefferies LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Jack emphasized that Onapgo has exceeded expectations in demand and that the product's reaction from physicians and patients has been very positive. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

What are the details of reimbursement discussions and the launch trajectory for ONAPGO? What immediate differentiation points are physicians focusing on compared to AbbVie's pump? - [Unidentified Analyst](Stifel)

2025Q1: We expect to convert 40% to 50% of enrollment forms into prescriptions, which aligns with industry averages. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Gross to Net Deductions for Onapgo

It involves changes in financial forecasts, specifically regarding gross to net deductions for Onapgo, which are critical indicators for investors.

What are the rate-limiting steps and timeframe for resolving Onapgo? What is the current gross-to-net deduction? - [Stacy Ku](TD Cowen, Research Division)

2025Q3: Regarding gross to net, Jack noted that it is currently not very high and will likely be closer to the current WACC-based annual cost estimate of $100,000 to $105,000 per patient. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

How much did seasonality affect Qelbree's net pricing in Q1, and what about Q2? Are there concerns about the $290M annual sales target for Qelbree? What infrastructure is needed for ONAPGO to transition from start forms to prescriptions? - [Stacy Ku](TD Cowen)

2025Q1: We anticipate high conversion rates for enrollment forms to actual prescriptions for ONAPGO. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Onapgo Demand and Supply Constraints

It highlights challenges in meeting demand for Onapgo due to supply constraints, which could impact sales projections and customer satisfaction.

If Onapgo had met all patient demand, how many additional patients would have received it? What would sales have been? - [Lin Tsai](Jefferies LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Jack Khattar shared that Onapgo has exceeded expectations in demand and that the product's reaction from physicians and patients has been very positive. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)

For the ONAPGO launch, how should we view the trajectory and any sales expectations in 2025 guidance? - [Stacy Ku](TD Cowen, Research Division)

2024Q4: ONAGO will likely be a slow build, but there could be an initial surge of patients. - [Jack Khattar](CEO)