Super Micro Computer Surges 10.24% To $60.05 On Strong Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory
Recent price action for Super Micro Computer exhibits strong bullish momentum, with four consecutive green candles culminating in a 10.24% surge to $60.05. The absence of significant upper wicks near $60.08 suggests sustained buying pressure at highs, establishing $60–$61 as immediate resistance. Key support forms at $54.47 (July 25 low), reinforced by a bullish reversal candle on July 22 after testing $48.85. A long-term ascending trendline connecting November 2024 ($18.58), June 2025 ($40.89), and July 2025 ($48.85) underpins the structural uptrend.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($49.20) recently crossed above the 100-day ($46.80) and 200-day ($43.10), signaling strengthening bullish bias. Current price ($60.05) trades 22% above the 50-day MA, confirming short-term acceleration. All three MAs now slope upward, with the 50-day acting as dynamic support. A "golden cross" formation in late June preceded the 45% rally from July lows, reflecting robust trend alignment.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) maintains a positive histogram above its signal line, reflecting accelerating upward momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) shows K-line (94) and D-line (88) deeply overbought (>80), though divergence remains absent. While MACD supports continuation, extreme KDJ readings near 95 suggest potential near-term consolidation. No bearish crossover or divergence is evident, indicating sustained but stretched momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the 20% 4-day surge (July 23–28), with price persistently hugging the upper band. This signals high volatility and strong directional conviction. The 20-period Band Width ratio spiked 40% in this period, supporting breakout validity. No contraction ("squeeze") is visible yet, implying continued volatility. Upper band resistance rises to $61.30.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent rallies validated volume surges: July 15 (+6.92% on 62M shares), July 28 (+10.24% on 72M shares). This elevates 10-day average volume 25% above the 3-month mean, confirming institutional participation. The July 22 reversal candle saw higher volume than preceding down days, signaling accumulation at $48.85 support. Sustained volume above 50M shares maintains bullish credibility.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI reads 82.5 – deeply overbought (>70) – driven by rapid short-term gains. Historically, similar RSI peaks (e.g., February 2025 at 84, April 2025 at 81) preceded 15–20% pullbacks. However, the primary uptrend remains intact, as RSI stayed above 45 during June-July consolidation, reflecting underlying strength. Traders should note RSI’s tendency for false bearish signals during strong trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $18.58 (November 2024) and high of $66.44 (February 2025), key levels include:
- 38.2%: $48.80 (aligned with July support)
- 50%: $42.50 (June low confluence)
- 61.8%: $36.20
The current rally cleared the 38.2% resistance ($48.80), transforming it into support. The 23.6% level ($56.80) was surpassed decisively, opening a path toward the $66.44 swing high. Confluence exists at $63–$66, combining the February peak and 0% Fibonacci extension resistance.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence: Bullish agreement appears at $48–$49 support (50-day MA + 38.2% Fibonacci + July 22 reversal candle). Upside target $66 gathers multi-indicator validation (Fibonacci extension + prior high + Bollinger Band projection).
Divergence: While RSI and KDJ flag overbought risks, neither shows bearish divergence against price. Volume and MACD sustain alignment with the uptrend, diminishing reversal urgency. The primary caution stems from RSI’s historical correlation with short-term pullbacks near $63–$66 resistance. Overall technical posture favors continuation with $54–$55 as critical downside invalidation.