Super Micro Computer Plummets 5.86%: Goldman’s Bearish Call Sparks Turbulence in AI Hardware Sector

Summary
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbles 5.86% to $28.355, its lowest since April 2026
• Goldman Sachs initiates 'Sell' rating with $26 target, citing margin compression and profitability risks
• Leveraged ETFs like SMCC (-8.96%) and SMCL (-11.81%) mirror SMCI’s freefall
• Intraday range of $27.8–$29.89 highlights volatile trading amid bearish options activity

Super Micro Computer’s stock has plunged sharply amid a bearish onslaught from Goldman Sachs, which downgraded the AI server leader to 'Sell' with a $26 price target. The move has triggered a cascade of selling pressure, with leveraged ETFs and options markets amplifying the selloff. As SMCI trades near its 52-week low of $25.71, investors are scrambling to assess the sustainability of its AI-driven growth amid margin concerns.

Goldman’s Margin Warning Ignites Sell-Off
Goldman Sachs’ downgrade of SMCI to 'Sell' has become the catalyst for the stock’s sharp decline. The firm highlighted that SMCI’s gross margins have halved to 9.5% in the latest quarter, driven by participation in 'margin dilutive deals' and supplier concentration (64% from one vendor). Analyst Katherine Murphy warned of 'limited visibility into improving profitability,' despite SMCI’s 27% share in tier-2 cloud and neocloud AI server markets. The $26 target implies ~15% further downside from current levels, triggering a wave of profit-taking and short-covering in options pits, where 79,000 puts traded on the session.

Computer Hardware Sector Under Pressure as DELL Holds Steady
The Computer Hardware sector, led by Dell Technologies (DELL -0.68%), has seen mixed performance. While SMCI’s 5.86% drop reflects sector-specific margin concerns, DELL’s more stable position—benefiting from diversified enterprise contracts—has cushioned its decline. However, broader AI hardware demand remains intact, with SMCI’s 705 sales reps (vs. Dell’s 50,000+) and Data Center Building Blocks platform still positioning it for long-term AI buildouts, despite short-term profitability hurdles.

Bearish Options and ETFs Dominate as SMCI Tests Key Support
• 200-day average: 41.98 (well below current price)
• RSI: 41.76 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -1.34 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: SMCI at 28.91 (lower band), near 52W low

SMCI’s technicals suggest a critical juncture. The stock is trading near its 200-day average and lower Bollinger Band, with RSI in oversold territory. However, bearish momentum persists, as evidenced by the MACD histogram’s negative divergence. Traders should monitor the 28.91 support level and 30.47 30-day moving average for potential reversal cues. Leveraged ETFs like SMCC (-8.96%) and SMCL (-11.81%) remain highly correlated to SMCI’s direction.

Top Options Contracts:
• SMCI20260123P27 (Put):
- Strike: $27 | Expiry: 2026-01-23 | IV: 62.09% | Leverage: 44.96% | Delta: -0.305 | Theta: -0.0133 | Gamma: 0.1147 | Turnover: 38,977
- IV (62.09%) indicates high volatility expectations; Leverage (44.96%) amplifies downside potential; Gamma (0.1147) ensures sensitivity to price swings.
- This put option offers aggressive bearish exposure as SMCI approaches its 52W low. A 5% downside to $26.94 would yield a payoff of $0.06 per contract, aligning with Goldman’s $26 target.

• SMCI20260123P27.5 (Put):
- Strike: $27.5 | Expiry: 2026-01-23 | IV: 61.13% | Leverage: 35.41% | Delta: -0.366 | Theta: -0.0089 | Gamma: 0.1251 | Turnover: 16,892
- IV (61.13%) supports bearish bias; Gamma (0.1251) ensures responsiveness to price drops; Leverage (35.41%) balances risk/reward.
- This contract provides a slightly higher strike for those expecting a rebound above $27.50. A 5% move to $26.94 would yield a $0.56 payoff, offering a 16% return on premium paid.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize SMCI20260123P27 for maximum leverage as SMCI tests its 52W low. Watch for a breakdown below $27 to trigger a cascade of short-term puts.

Backtest Super Micro Computer Stock Performance
The backtest of SMCI's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present reveals favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 51.13%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.47%, and the 30-Day win rate is 60.78%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 23.22%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there was some volatility, SMCI exhibited resilience and the potential for recovery.

SMCI at Crossroads: Profitability Pressures vs. AI Growth Potential
Super Micro Computer’s sharp decline reflects immediate margin concerns, but its long-term AI server dominance remains intact. The stock’s proximity to its 52W low and oversold RSI suggest a potential rebound, though Goldman’s bearish thesis could extend the selloff. Investors should monitor the 28.91 support level and 30.47 30-day moving average for directional clues. Meanwhile, sector leader Dell Technologies (DELL -0.68%) offers a relative safe haven. For those with conviction, SMCI20260123P27 provides a high-leverage bet on a $26 target, but caution is warranted until earnings clarity emerges in late January.