Why Super Group (SGHC) Outpaces Jumia (JMIA) as the 2026 Play for African Consumer Growth

The African consumer market is evolving rapidly, with e-commerce, digital services, and logistics innovation driving new opportunities. While Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) has long been a dominant player in the region's e-commerce and food delivery sectors, Super Group Holdings (SGHC) is emerging as a more compelling investment thesis for 2026. By prioritizing logistics diversification, financial sustainability, and strategic digital innovation, SGHC is positioning itself to outperform Jumia in the long term.

Logistics as a Strategic Differentiator

Super Group's focus on integrated logistics and telematics-led fleet management has become a cornerstone of its African operations. The company has streamlined its business by divesting non-core assets like SG Fleet and the inTime business in Germany, unlocking capital and reducing debt. This has enabled SGHC to deepen its contract logistics across Southern Africa, particularly in high-growth sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), healthcare, and industrial manufacturing according to Porter's Five Forces analysis.

In contrast, Jumia's recent financial progress-while notable-remains tied to its core e-commerce and food delivery segments. While the company's third-quarter 2025 revenue grew by 25.3% to $45.63 million, its losses persist, narrowing to $17.4 million in the same period. Jumia's strategy emphasizes operational efficiency and cash flow management, but its reliance on high-margin services like advertising and logistics is still in its early stages. Super Group, meanwhile, has already embedded logistics into its DNA, with multi-year contracts enhancing asset utilization and supporting scalable growth.

Diversification and Digital Innovation

SGHC's diversification strategy extends beyond logistics. The company has aggressively expanded into iGaming and sports betting, with Africa now accounting for 40% of its total revenue-a tripling since 2021. In Q3 2025 alone, internet casino revenue from Africa surged 37% year-over-year. This diversification reduces reliance on any single sector and taps into Africa's growing digital economy.

Jumia, by comparison, has yet to replicate this level of cross-sector innovation. While its recent launch of a retail advertising platform in June 2025 is a step forward, the company remains heavily dependent on e-commerce and food delivery. Super Group's upcoming Super Coin initiative-a digital assets stablecoin in South Africa- further underscores its commitment to reducing payment costs and enhancing customer engagement in a region where transaction fees are prohibitively high. This move aligns with broader trends in Africa's fintech landscape, where digital currencies are gaining traction as a solution to traditional banking limitations.

Financial Sustainability and Profitability Outlook

Jumia's path to profitability is ambitious but uncertain. The company aims to break even on a loss before income tax basis by Q4 2026 and achieve full-year profitability by 2027. However, its 2025 guidance projects a $45-50 million loss before income tax, a figure that remains significant. Analysts have raised price targets for JMIA stock, reflecting optimism about its turnaround, but the timeline for profitability remains stretched.

Super Group, meanwhile, has demonstrated stronger financial discipline. By focusing on high-return-on-investment (ROIC) niches and disciplined bolt-on M&A, SGHC has raised its full-year 2025 earnings guidance. The company's cost-optimized logistics model- exemplified by its subsidiary Chowdeck, which generates profit after fulfillment costs despite lower average order values than Jumia Food-highlights its ability to balance growth with profitability. Super Group's leadership has also signaled no long-term disruptions from UK tax changes, a critical factor for investors seeking stability in a volatile market.

Conclusion: A Stronger 2026 Play

While both SGHC and JMIA are navigating the complexities of Africa's consumer market, Super Group's strategic focus on logistics, diversification, and financial sustainability positions it as a stronger 2026 play. By leveraging its integrated logistics network, expanding into high-growth sectors like iGaming, and pioneering digital solutions like Super Coin, SGHC is not only capitalizing on current trends but also future-proofing its operations. Jumia's reliance on e-commerce and food delivery, though growing, remains vulnerable to margin pressures and operational inefficiencies. For investors seeking exposure to Africa's consumer boom, Super Group offers a more resilient and scalable proposition.