Sunrun (RUN) Upgraded by Jefferies to Buy; Analysts Predict 15.16% Downside
ByAinvest
Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025 2:18 pm ET1min read
RUN--
Jefferies expects Sunrun to meet its 2025 cash generation guidance of $200 million to $500 million despite higher safe-harbor spending in the second and third quarters. The firm anticipates even stronger cash flow in 2026 as these expenses roll off, positioning Sunrun for continued financial health [1].
Sunrun, the largest residential solar third-party owner in the U.S., is projected to grow installations in the high single digits to low teens in 2026, while the broader U.S. residential solar market is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year. This growth is anticipated to be driven by Sunrun capturing market share as other players exit or reduce their exposure following the expiration of the 25D tax credit [1].
Jefferies also noted a shift from cash and loan sales to power purchase agreement (PPA) and lease contracts, Sunrun’s core expertise, which is expected to support subscriber growth of around 11% in 2026. Some industry consultants expect third-party owners to expand roughly 25% in 2026, suggesting Sunrun’s growth could exceed current projections [1].
Despite near-term competition, Jefferies believes Sunrun's improved cash flow outlook and leadership position in the U.S. residential solar market make it an attractive buy ahead of a "big growth year" [1].
In addition to the upgrade, Sunrun has been active in the industry. SunPower, formerly known as Complete Solaria, has announced the acquisition of Sunder Energy, a Utah-based solar sales company, in a $40 million cash-plus-stock deal. This acquisition is expected to boost SunPower’s sales revenue in Q4 2025 and significantly expand its US residential solar presence [2].
Sunrun has also activated the US’s first residential vehicle-to-grid distributed power plant with Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE), using Ford F-150 Lightning trucks to send stored energy to the grid during peak demand. This initiative showcases how electric vehicles can support grid reliability, lower costs, and offer new income streams while advancing clean energy goals [2].
Jefferies upgrades Sunrun (RUN) to Buy from Hold, with an average one-year price target of $14.67/share, a 15.16% decrease from its latest closing price of $17.29/share. The projected annual revenue for Sunrun is 2,999MM, a 40.85% increase, with a projected annual non-GAAP EPS of 0.07. The put/call ratio of RUN is 0.86, indicating a bullish outlook.
Jefferies has upgraded Sunrun Inc. (RUN) to "Buy" from "Hold," citing strong cash flow generation and robust growth prospects for the company. The brokerage firm has set a price target of $21 per share, up from its previous target of $11, indicating a significant increase in the stock's potential value [1].Jefferies expects Sunrun to meet its 2025 cash generation guidance of $200 million to $500 million despite higher safe-harbor spending in the second and third quarters. The firm anticipates even stronger cash flow in 2026 as these expenses roll off, positioning Sunrun for continued financial health [1].
Sunrun, the largest residential solar third-party owner in the U.S., is projected to grow installations in the high single digits to low teens in 2026, while the broader U.S. residential solar market is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year. This growth is anticipated to be driven by Sunrun capturing market share as other players exit or reduce their exposure following the expiration of the 25D tax credit [1].
Jefferies also noted a shift from cash and loan sales to power purchase agreement (PPA) and lease contracts, Sunrun’s core expertise, which is expected to support subscriber growth of around 11% in 2026. Some industry consultants expect third-party owners to expand roughly 25% in 2026, suggesting Sunrun’s growth could exceed current projections [1].
Despite near-term competition, Jefferies believes Sunrun's improved cash flow outlook and leadership position in the U.S. residential solar market make it an attractive buy ahead of a "big growth year" [1].
In addition to the upgrade, Sunrun has been active in the industry. SunPower, formerly known as Complete Solaria, has announced the acquisition of Sunder Energy, a Utah-based solar sales company, in a $40 million cash-plus-stock deal. This acquisition is expected to boost SunPower’s sales revenue in Q4 2025 and significantly expand its US residential solar presence [2].
Sunrun has also activated the US’s first residential vehicle-to-grid distributed power plant with Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE), using Ford F-150 Lightning trucks to send stored energy to the grid during peak demand. This initiative showcases how electric vehicles can support grid reliability, lower costs, and offer new income streams while advancing clean energy goals [2].
Stay ahead of the market.
Get curated U.S. market news, insights and key dates delivered to your inbox.
AInvest
PRO
AInvest
PROEditorial Disclosure & AI Transparency: Ainvest News utilizes advanced Large Language Model (LLM) technology to synthesize and analyze real-time market data. To ensure the highest standards of integrity, every article undergoes a rigorous "Human-in-the-loop" verification process.
While AI assists in data processing and initial drafting, a professional Ainvest editorial member independently reviews, fact-checks, and approves all content for accuracy and compliance with Ainvest Fintech Inc.’s editorial standards. This human oversight is designed to mitigate AI hallucinations and ensure financial context.
Investment Warning: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional investment, legal, or financial advice. Markets involve inherent risks. Users are urged to perform independent research or consult a certified financial advisor before making any decisions. Ainvest Fintech Inc. disclaims all liability for actions taken based on this information. Found an error?Report an Issue
Comments
No comments yet