Sun/Tether Market Overview (SUNUSDT): 2025-09-23 12:00 ET

• Price fell from 0.03523 to 0.03052 in 24 hours, with bearish momentum and key support near 0.0304.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the initial breakdown, but activity has declined as the pair consolidated.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, while MACD shows bearish momentum, suggesting further downside risk.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band for much of the session, signaling high volatility and weak support.
• A potential reversal at 0.0304 could trigger a test of the 0.0313–0.0320 Fibonacci level for short-term bounces.

Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) opened at 0.03518 (12:00 ET – 1) and closed at 0.0306 (12:00 ET), with a high of 0.03523 and a low of 0.0304. Total volume reached 444,031,476. Total notional turnover across the 24-hour window is approximately $13.3M.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the last 24 hours reveals a clear bearish bias, with a key breakdown occurring around 0.0320–0.0325. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.0332–0.0324 in the early hours of the session, signaling bearish continuation. Several doji candles emerged around 0.0315–0.0319, suggesting indecision or potential exhaustion in the bearish move. A strong support zone appears to be forming near 0.0304–0.0309, where price has bounced twice in the last three hours. The next critical test for buyers will be at this level, as it could trigger a short-term reversal or a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is well below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 20-period line around 0.0325–0.0328 and the 50-period near 0.0329–0.0331. Both are acting as resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 0.0335, while the 100-period and 200-period lines are at 0.0340 and 0.0345, respectively. These levels are likely to be key areas of resistance in the event of a rebound.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), which could hint at near-term support. However, a sustained reversal is unlikely without a strong volume confirmation. The 1-hour and daily RSI lines are also trending lower, suggesting the broader bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been expanding throughout the session, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widening as the price moved lower. The price has spent much of the session near or below the lower band, a classic sign of oversold conditions and potential support zones. A close above the 20-period moving average and into the middle band would signal a possible short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial breakdown, with a large 15-minute candle at 0.0325–0.0324 recording 19 million volume and 6.3 million notional turnover. However, volume has declined significantly as the price has approached 0.0304–0.0309. This divergence between price and volume may suggest a temporary pause in the bearish move. Turnover is also showing signs of exhaustion, with lower notional value being traded despite continued downward movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (high at 0.03523 and low at 0.0304), the key levels are at 38.2% (0.0329), 50% (0.0328), and 61.8% (0.0325). The price is currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential short-term support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of a broader bearish move (high at 0.0351, low at 0.0304) is around 0.0329–0.0331, which may act as a pivot level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a 15-minute 20-period moving average, with a stop loss placed just above the recent 15-minute high. This setup would have been triggered on several occasions during the 24-hour period, with the most significant trigger at 0.0325–0.0324. The strategy appears to align with the observed bearish bias and the support level at 0.0304–0.0309 as a key target. However, the declining volume and oversold RSI suggest that any short position may carry increased risk if a rebound occurs. The success of this strategy would depend heavily on a continuation of the bearish trend and a lack of strong volume confirmation at key support levels.