Sun/Tether Market Overview – 2025-11-02

• Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) closed lower amid choppy price action and fluctuating momentum.
• Price tested key resistance and support levels, with a bearish bias emerging in the latter half of the 24-hour period.
• Volatility expanded in the late hours of the session, with increased volume but limited directional resolution.
• No definitive reversal pattern was observed, though a potential bear trap may have been attempted at recent highs.
• Notional turnover spiked during the early morning hours before a consolidation phase took over.

Market Summary

Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) opened at $0.02239 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02242 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The pair reached a high of $0.02253 and a low of $0.02220 during the period. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 36,905,789.0 tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $845,959.38 (based on weighted average price).

The candlestick chart shows a bearish bias in the later half of the session, with price pulling back from key resistance levels and failing to sustain momentum above 0.0225. This is underscored by a series of lower highs and lower closes in the final hours. The formation of small-bodied candles, especially after the 23:15 ET time frame, suggests indecision among traders and possible exhaustion in the short-term bullish sentiment.

Structure & Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, key resistance levels can be identified around the 0.0225–0.02253 range, which was tested but not sustained. Support levels appear at 0.02242 and 0.02238, both of which were respected to some degree during the consolidation phase. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the 08:15–08:30 ET hour, followed by a small bullish reversal near 14:30–15:00 ET, though these were not confirmed by volume or price follow-through.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a death cross formation during the 00:45–01:00 ET time frame, which may signal a bearish trend continuation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a more neutral to bearish outlook for the medium term.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

Momentum appears to have shifted in favor of the bears in the final hours of the session. While the MACD histogram showed some positive divergence earlier in the session, it turned negative by the 09:00 ET hour and remained below the zero line for the remainder of the period. This suggests that the selling pressure has intensified.

RSI-14 data was not accessible due to a data feed error, limiting the ability to assess overbought/oversold conditions directly. However, price behavior and volume dynamics suggest that the pair may have been trading in oversold territory near the 0.02229–0.02232 range. Bollinger Bands expanded during the 17:00–19:00 ET period, coinciding with a sharp sell-off and a spike in volatility.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume and notional turnover saw a sharp increase during the 17:00–19:00 ET hour, with over 11 million tokens traded in a single 15-minute candle. This coincided with a sharp selloff, pushing the price down to the session low. However, the subsequent recovery failed to confirm a bullish reversal, with volume and turnover dropping off after the 21:00 ET hour.

A divergence between price and volume was observed around the 01:30–02:45 ET time frame, where the price made a higher high but failed to do so on a higher volume basis. This may indicate a lack of conviction among buyers, potentially signaling an exhaustion in the short-term bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from the high at 0.02253 to the low at 0.02229, the 61.8% retracement level lies at approximately 0.02239. This level coincided with a minor bounce in the 14:30–15:15 ET time frame, suggesting a possible psychological support.

On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish move may present a potential target for bearish traders, though it remains to be seen whether the pair will test this level in the next 24 hours. The 38.2% retracement level appears at 0.02246, which was tested multiple times during the session but not decisively broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the limited availability of RSI-14 data for SUNUSDT, the backtesting strategy requires clarification or an alternative price feed to proceed. If historical price data can be provided or the symbol adjusted to match the data vendor's format, the RSI can be calculated locally and used to generate trading signals.

The current technical conditions suggest that a RSI-based strategy may have identified oversold conditions near the 0.02229–0.02232 range and overbought conditions near 0.0225. A potential backtest could involve long entries on RSI crossover above 30 and short entries on RSI below 70, with stop-loss levels placed at key Fibonacci or support/resistance levels identified in the analysis.