SUIJPY Market Overview

Summary
• Price opened at 315.68, hit a high of 318.0, and closed at 311.65 with a 24-hour low of 306.40.
• A volatile 24-hour session saw volume exceed 218,795.09 units and turnover reach $67,491.61.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged after a sharp 15-minute drop from 315.68 to 314.69.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 315.68 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 318.0 before falling to a low of 306.40, closing at 311.65 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. Total volume for the period was 218,795.09 units, with a notional turnover of $67,491.61. The price action reflects heightened volatility, particularly in the late evening and early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

A sharp bearish reversal was observed on the 15-minute chart around 19:15 ET with a candle opening at 314.72 and closing at 312.32. This forms a dark cloud cover pattern, suggesting potential bearish momentum. Key support levels have formed around 311.0–312.0, with 309.0 also acting as a critical area. Resistance levels are clustered between 314.0 and 316.0, where the price has stalled multiple times during the session. A notable doji appeared at 21:45 ET, indicating indecision near these levels.

Engulfing and Doji Patterns

The most significant formation is a bearish engulfing pattern at 22:45–23:00 ET, where price moved from 313.36 to 315.20 and then reversed, confirming a short-term bearish shift. The doji at 21:45 ET is a warning sign, reinforcing the bearish pressure. Traders should monitor these levels for potential reversals or breakdowns.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 200-SMA on the daily chart remains above the current price, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend is intact, though short-term traders are facing a bearish setup. The 50-EMA has become a key reference point, with price testing this level multiple times during the session.

Short vs. Long-Term Bias

While the short-term moving averages show a bearish divergence, the longer-term moving averages suggest the trend is still in place. This duality indicates a potential consolidation phase ahead. Traders may want to use the 50-EMA as a dynamic support/resistance level in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative mid-session and remained in the bearish territory by the close. The histogram showed a sharp contraction as the trend reversed after 19:00 ET. RSI dipped below 30 in the early morning, indicating oversold conditions around 06:00–07:00 ET, though this did not trigger a rebound. Momentum remains bearish, with the MACD line and signal line diverging further by the final candle.

Overbought and Oversold Signals

RSI reached overbought conditions at 315.0–316.0 during the afternoon but failed to sustain above this range. Oversold readings occurred in the early morning, but price failed to break out effectively. This suggests a potential false breakout scenario, where traders may want to avoid overreacting to short-term signals.

Bollinger Bands

Price tested the lower band multiple times in the late evening and early morning hours, showing a consolidation phase. Volatility appeared to expand after 19:00 ET, as the bands widened in response to increased volume and price swings. The current price sits within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a bearish bias remains intact.

Volatility Expansion and Breakdown

The widening of Bollinger Bands in the late evening indicates increased market activity and potential for a breakdown or breakout. Traders should watch for a potential break below the lower band as a confirmation of bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price movements, especially between 19:00–20:30 ET and again between 04:30–06:00 ET. These periods coincided with sharp downward moves and a reversal from overbought conditions. Notional turnover mirrored these spikes, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A divergence appeared in the late morning hours, where volume failed to support a bullish breakout above 314.0, suggesting waning buying pressure.

Price–Volume Divergence

The divergence between price and volume became most apparent during the failed rally above 314.0 in the late morning. This suggests the buying pressure is weakening, and a breakdown may be more likely than a bullish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level was tested at 313.0–313.5, where the price found temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing high aligns with current price levels, indicating a potential key area for reversal. A breakdown below 311.0 could target the next Fibonacci level at 307.6.

Key Retracement Levels to Watch

Traders should closely monitor the 61.8% and 38.2% levels on the 15-minute chart for potential short-term pivots. A confirmation of breakdown below 311.0 could signal a deeper retracement, aligning with Fibonacci levels on both short- and long-term charts.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing patterns and divergences in RSI and volume, a backtest of the bearish-engulfing strategy on this pair may offer valuable insights. Using the SUIJPY ticker as the basis, the backtest would focus on identifying all bearish-engulfing candles since 2022 and measure average returns, drawdown, and holding periods. The hypothesis is that the strategy could offer consistent bearish signals in a volatile market, especially when confirmed by RSI and volume.