SUI's Volatility and Potential Rebound: Is $1.65 the Next Target?

The SUI token, a cornerstone of the Sui blockchain ecosystem, has entered a critical phase in October 2025 as it navigates a volatile price environment. With the asset consolidating near $3.20 and facing a pivotal support level at $1.65, traders and investors are scrutinizing technical indicators to gauge whether this level will act as a catalyst for a rebound or a gateway to further declines.

Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals and Key Levels

SUI's price action reveals a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 51.10, placing the asset in neutral territory, while the MACD histogram shows a bearish crossover, with the blue line dipping below the red signal line, according to CoinCodex. This divergence suggests weakening momentum, though the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3.46 and the 200-day SMA at $3.14 indicate that the long-term bullish trend remains intact, according to Blockchain.News.

A critical concern is the inverse cup and handle pattern forming on the daily chart, which, if confirmed, could drive SUI down to $1.65-a 38% drop from current levels, according to BitcoinEthereumNews. This pattern is reinforced by the 50-day SMA acting as a dynamic support line and the looming threat of a "death cross" formation, where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA, as noted in a Blockchain.News article. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) remains below 50, signaling weak buying pressure and validating the bearish bias, a point also noted by CoinCodex.

Volatility and Institutional Accumulation

Despite the bearish technical structure, SUI's volatility has drawn institutional attention. The asset has been trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, a historically strong support zone, with volume patterns suggesting continued accumulation by large players, according to a Blockchain.News analysis. This dynamic creates a paradox: while the price has declined 2.01% in a single session, the 200-day SMA remains below the current price, reinforcing the idea that the broader uptrend is not yet broken, as CoinCodex also highlights.

Analysts project a $4.20 price target by September 2025 if SUI breaches key resistance at $3.65 and sustains momentum above $3.27 (per Blockchain.News). However, a breakdown below $3.20 could trigger a prolonged downtrend, with $1.65 as the ultimate target. The 84% positive sentiment among community participants adds a layer of optimism, though this must be weighed against the $123 million token unlock event, which could introduce significant selling pressure, as noted by CoinCodex.

Strategic Implications for Traders

For short-term traders, the $3.27–$3.30 support zone represents a high-probability entry point for accumulation, with stop-loss placement advised below $3.10 to mitigate downside risk (per Blockchain.News). A confirmed break above $3.65 would validate the bullish case, potentially propelling SUI toward $4.20 and beyond. Conversely, a failure to hold $3.27 could accelerate the downtrend, with $2.60 as an intermediate target before the critical $1.65 level comes into focus, a scenario also discussed in the earlier Blockchain.News piece.

The MACD's mixed signals-bearish divergence in the histogram but a potential bullish crossover in the line-underscore the need for caution. Traders should monitor the 50-day SMA closely, as a retest of this level could either confirm a rebound or signal capitulation.

Conclusion: A Tipping Point for SUI

SUI's journey toward $1.65 hinges on the interplay of technical resilience and macroeconomic pressures. While the token's long-term fundamentals remain robust, the immediate outlook is clouded by volatility and the risk of a bearish pattern completion. Investors must balance the allure of a potential rebound with the reality of a $123 million token unlock and a fragile MFI.

As the market approaches October 2025, the coming weeks will be decisive. A breakout above $3.89 resistance could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $3.20 may cement $1.65 as the next target. For now, patience and disciplined risk management remain paramount.