SUI's Short-Term Rally Amid $82.8M Token Unlock: Momentum or Mirage?

The SUI token has recently experienced a notable 6% price surge, driven by two key catalysts: a Coinbase listing and the approval of a 2x leveraged Sui ETF by the SEC according to reports. This rally has occurred against the backdrop of a contentious $82.8 million token unlock event, which has sparked debate among investors about whether the bullish momentum is sustainable or merely a temporary rebound. To assess this, we must dissect the unlock's timing, magnitude, and market implications, while weighing technical indicators and expert analyses.

The Catalysts: Short-Term Optimism

The recent price surge was fueled by institutional and retail optimism. The Coinbase listing provided SUI with broader accessibility, while the SEC's approval of a leveraged ETF introduced new liquidity. These developments temporarily overshadowed concerns about the token unlock, which had initially been perceived as a headwind. However, the market's reaction to the unlock-scheduled for December 1, 2025-reveals a more nuanced picture.

Unlock Discrepancies: A Closer Look

Conflicting reports have muddied the waters regarding the unlock's value and timing. According to Tokenomist, a 64.19 million SUI token unlock occurred on December 1, 2025, representing 2.26% of the circulating supply and valued at approximately $86 million at the time. Meanwhile, other sources, such as AMBCrypto and KuCoin, reference a $60.39 million unlock on January 1, 2026, involving 43.69 million tokens (0.44% of total supply) according to data. These discrepancies likely stem from differing valuation assumptions (token price) and the inclusion of multiple unlock events in December 2025. For instance, Cubix notes that over 1.2 billion SUI tokens will unlock in December 2025 alone, potentially injecting $720 million into the market at a $0.60 price point.

Market Reactions: Mixed Signals

The December 1 unlock coincided with the 6% price rally, but technical indicators suggest weakening momentum. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and trading volume fell below the 20-day moving average, signaling that buyers may lack the strength to sustain an upward trend. Furthermore, the January 1 unlock-valued at $60.39 million-has already introduced renewed sell pressure, with early contributors historically inclined to offload tokens. Analysts warn that if these tokens are rapidly transferred to exchanges, liquidity could be strained, exacerbating downward volatility according to forecasts.

Sustainability of Bullish Momentum

The long-term outlook for SUI hinges on two critical factors: ecosystem execution and market absorption of unlock pressures. On the positive side, Sui's Total Value Locked (TVL) has risen to $922.25 million, and long-position volumes in SUI/USDT perpetual contracts have increased. These metrics suggest growing utility and institutional interest. However, structural challenges remain. Over $80 million in tokens are set to unlock in early 2026, representing 1.11% of the total supply. If spot investors continue to exit-$5 million in outflows were recorded in the 48 hours preceding the January unlock-the market may struggle to defend key support levels, such as $1.60 according to market analysis.

Price predictions for 2026 range from $3.80 to $6.40, with an average of $5.20 according to forecasts. These forecasts assume Sui can absorb unlock pressures through improved demand, driven by developer growth and institutional adoption. Yet, as AMBCrypto notes, bulls must defend the $1.60 support zone to avoid a potential decline toward $1 according to analysis.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance

SUI's short-term rally is undeniably real, but its sustainability depends on whether the market can absorb the combined pressures of multiple unlocks in late 2025 and early 2026. While catalysts like the Coinbase listing and ETF approval have injected optimism, technical indicators and historical sell-side behavior suggest caution. Investors should monitor exchange inflows, TVL trends, and institutional activity to gauge whether Sui's ecosystem can outpace the liquidity challenges posed by its token schedule. For now, the $82.8 million unlock-whether in December or January-serves as a reminder that bullish momentum in crypto is often a race between innovation and sell pressure.