SUI Price Volatility Intensifies Amid Breakout and Bearish Retracement Risks

SUI’s price has been the subject of intense speculation following a breakout from a macro triangle pattern, with some analysts suggesting the token could rally toward $10. On the other hand, bearish signals such as profit-booking and ongoing selling pressure have raised concerns that the price could retrace to key support levels, including $3.17 and as low as $2.5 [1]. This divergence in price forecasts has led to a broader debate over SUI’s short-term trajectory and its potential to outperform other altcoins in a volatile market.

Rekt Capital, a popular crypto analyst, posted on X on August 22 that SUI is currently in the post-breakout retest phase, a critical period to confirm the validity of the recent upward move [1]. According to the analyst, if bearish sentiment returns in the broader crypto market, SUI could see a retracement to $3.1 or even fall further to $2.5. Additionally, Rekt Capital highlighted that the listing of SUI on Robinhood could act as a catalyst for a stronger upward move, potentially reinforcing the breakout pattern [1].

Meanwhile, institutional adoption of the Sui network has continued to grow rapidly, with total value locked (TVL) crossing the $2 billion mark. According to DeFillama, Sui’s TVL and market cap reached $2.01 billion and $11.93 billion, respectively [1]. This growth has been driven by increased usage in gaming integrations and infrastructure developments, reinforcing Sui’s position as a leading platform for Web3 applications. Messari reported that daily transactions on the Sui network increased 11% quarter-on-quarter to 5 million, while active addresses decreased slightly by 1% to 1 million [1].

The token’s price performance has also shown mixed signals. Over the past 24 hours, SUI gained nearly 11%, with a 24-hour low and high of $3.39 and $3.80, respectively. The price was trading at $3.74, below both the 50- and 100-day moving averages but above the 200-day line [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 51.85, indicating a neutral market phase. However, analysts like Ali Martinez and Crypto Tony have warned that SUI could fall to $3.17 support before attempting another breakout [1].

Open interest in SUI futures has also seen a notable increase, rising nearly 9% to $1.92 billion in the last 24 hours, suggesting heightened interest among traders in the derivatives market [1]. CoinGlass data indicates that buying pressure has been building in the short term, which could support further upward movement if the market continues to favor SUI.

The SUI price rally has drawn comparisons to other major altcoins, particularly due to its high trading volume in June, which outpaced that of BNB and Hyperliquid. While some market participants view this as a sign of strong demand and institutional interest, others caution that such volume spikes can be short-lived and may not necessarily lead to sustained price appreciation [1]. The broader market environment, including Bitcoin’s performance, remains a key factor influencing altcoin dynamics, though SUI’s movement has shown a degree of independence from the leading cryptocurrency.

Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor both on-chain metrics and market sentiment closely. While a rally to $10 would require continued strong buying pressure and confirmation of bullish patterns, a retest of support levels could signal waning confidence and a more bearish outlook in the near term. Given the unpredictable nature of the crypto market, forecasts should be treated as analytical insights rather than certainties [1].

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[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68aa2aaef88b9c0aadf907af/