SUI Price Faces Analyst Divergence as Phantom Ends Support

• Phantom wallet will end support for the Sui blockchain on September 24, 2026, citing a significant drop in network activity and liquidity.
• Total Value Locked (TVL) on the network has plummeted from a peak of $2 billion to approximately $470 million, reflecting a loss of initial momentum.
• Analyst price forecasts for SUI in 2026 vary wildly, ranging from conservative targets below $1.00 to bullish projections above $9.00.
• The primary headwind for price appreciation remains persistent token unlock pressure, as 60% of the total supply remains locked.

Sui is navigating a critical juncture as its ecosystem faces divergent narratives. The network has achieved significant institutional milestones, including the launch of spot exchange-traded products and strategic partnerships with major financial infrastructure firms. However, these developments are currently overshadowed by liquidity contraction and aggressive token dilution risks that have suppressed price action despite robust on-chain fundamentals.

The decision by Phantom, a leading multi-chain wallet, to withdraw support for Sui marks a notable setback for the network's retail accessibility. The wallet provider announced the discontinuation of support by September 24, 2026, due to a substantial decline in Total Value Locked and user engagement. When Phantom initially integrated Sui in January 2025, the network boasted approximately 15 million monthly active users and the token traded near its all-time high of $5.36. Since then, the token has retreated to trade around $0.83, with a market capitalization hovering near $3.4 billion. Phantom users are advised to migrate assets to other compatible wallets or convert holdings to tokens on other chains, such as Solana or Ethereum, before the deadline. This exit underscores the challenges Sui faces in retaining retail liquidity amid a broader altcoin downturn.

How Do Token Unlocks Impact SUI Price Forecasts?

Market analysts are sharply divided on the future trajectory of SUI, with 2026 price targets spanning a 14-fold range. Conservative algorithmic models, such as those from Changelly, project a maximum price of approximately $0.745 to $0.79. In stark contrast, bullish forecasts from 99Bitcoins suggest the token could reach as high as $9.05. This extreme divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding whether network growth will translate into sustained price appreciation.

The core constraint driving this divergence is token dilution. As of mid-2026, only 40% of the total 10 billion SUI supply was in circulation, leaving 60% locked with early investors and the foundation. These future unlocks create persistent selling pressure that absorbs buy-side demand, a dynamic that has prevented the token from recovering despite strong fundamental growth. A breakout above the critical $3.00 resistance level would likely require sustained institutional buying pressure capable of offsetting this dilution.

What Is Driving Institutional Adoption on Sui?

Despite liquidity headwinds, Sui has made significant strides in institutional infrastructure and enterprise adoption. The network became the fifth crypto asset to secure a spot exchange-traded product in February 2026, opening new allocation channels for traditional investors. Providers such as Grayscale, Canary Capital, and 21Shares have listed SUI, broadening access for institutional capital.

Furthermore, tZERO Group has integrated directly with the Sui blockchain to support regulated digital asset securities. This partnership brings established U.S. market infrastructure, including issuance, custody, and compliance tools, to the Sui ecosystem. The collaboration leverages Sui’s object-centric architecture and near-instant finality to facilitate institutional-grade tokenization projects. Additionally, Tether has integrated its Hadron platform on Sui, and Coinbase has added native staking support, further embedding the network in the traditional finance sector.

On-chain metrics continue to show robust activity, with the network reaching 240 million cumulative accounts by June 2026. Daily transfers have averaged over 345,000 transactions, demonstrating strong utility. Total Value Locked expanded from $250 million in early 2024 to a peak of $2.6 billion in late 2025, although it has since contracted to approximately $465 million. Technical analysts note that SUI is testing a critical descending trendline resistance, with a weekly close above $1.4147 required to confirm a bullish breakout toward $2.02. Fresh DeFi yield opportunities, with some pools offering over 50% APY, are currently drawing capital into the ecosystem, providing fundamental support alongside these technical setups.