Sui Price Faces 38% Plunge Risk as 44 Million Tokens Unlock

Sui (SUI) is currently trading at $2.83, marking a 1.8% increase for the day on June 30. The cryptocurrency is at a pivotal point, with its price hovering around a critical level. The digital asset is under significant bearish pressure due to the formation of an inverted cup and handle pattern on its daily chart. This technical pattern suggests that if the price falls below the crucial support level of $2.66, it could plummet by as much as 38%, potentially reaching a low of $1.651. This bearish outlook is further exacerbated by the impending unlock of 44 million SUI tokens, valued at approximately $123 million, which is set to occur within the next seven days.

The inverted cup and handle pattern is a rare formation that indicates a potential steep decline if the bullish momentum weakens. The slight uptick in the handle's ascending parallel channel is likely to falter, continuing the downtrend that began in May. The depth of the cup suggests that a 38% crash could ensue from the support level of $2.66. If the price loses this support, it could tumble below $2, recording a 2025 low of $1.651. This pattern is not the only bearish signal; SUI also formed a death cross last week, which coincided with a slight uptrend. This indicates that the slight uptrend forming the pattern’s handle is weak and could falter, pushing SUI below the $1.651 support.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is also facing rejection in its attempt to cross above the mean level of 50, signaling weak buying pressure. This development occurs as the long-term outlook for the crypto market remains bullish, with some analysts forecasting a $1 million target for Bitcoin. However, the bearish technical structure of SUI suggests that the price could face significant headwinds in the near term.

In addition to the technical indicators, the upcoming unlock of 44 million SUI tokens adds to the bearish pressure. Data from Tokenomist shows that these tokens, valued at over $123 million at the current price, will be unlocked in the next seven days. The impact on the price will depend on whether the recipients choose to sell or hold. Out of these unlocked tokens, $35 million will go to the community reserve, $5.81 million to the Mysten Labs Treasury, and $54 million for Series B funding. These tokens are less likely to be sold and may have little to no impact on the SUI price. However, the main risk lies with the 9.98 million SUI tokens valued at $28 million that will go to early contributors. If these tokens are sold and move to exchanges, it could trigger a crash, erasing the optimism towards SUI triggered by Grayscale adding SUI to the Q3 crypto list.

In summary, the price of SUI is facing major volatility this week due to the upcoming unlock of 44 million tokens and the formation of a bearish reversal pattern. The recent death cross signal indicates that a looming crash below $2 is likely. The price performance of SUI will be influenced by buying behavior and market interest, considering the upcoming unlock event.