SUI's Path to $10: Is the $1.18 Support Level the Key Catalyst?

The SUI token, native to the Sui blockchain, has emerged as a focal point for both retail and institutional investors in late 2025. While historical technical analysis often highlighted the $1.18 support level as a psychological and structural benchmark, recent price action and institutional dynamics suggest a more complex narrative. This article examines whether SUI's trajectory toward $10 hinges on revisiting $1.18 or if newer catalysts-such as institutional adoption and evolving technical indicators-are the true drivers of its breakout potential.

Historical Context: The $1.18 Support Level

The $1.18 level first gained prominence in early 2024 when SUI rebounded from this price during a period of heightened investor confidence and rising Total Value Locked (TVL) in Sui-based DeFi platforms. At the time, this level acted as a critical floor, preventing further downside and catalyzing a short-term rally. However, as of late 2025, SUI has demonstrated resilience above $1.60, with analysts noting stronger buying pressure and demand absorption in this higher range according to recent analysis. This shift suggests that while $1.18 retains historical significance, its relevance as a current catalyst has diminished.

Current Technical Dynamics: A New Foundation

Recent technical analyses emphasize support levels above $1.60 as pivotal for SUI's near-term trajectory. For instance, the $1.80 support zone has been identified as a key area to monitor, with analysts projecting a potential recovery toward $2.36 if this level holds. Additionally, SUI's ability to break through $2.05 and $2.08-despite below-average volume-has been attributed to targeted accumulation by institutional investors. This pattern of high token turnover with relatively low volume is a classic sign of large players entering the market discreetly . This pattern of high token turnover with relatively low volume is a classic sign of large players entering the market discreetly, a trend that could underpin further upward momentum.

Institutional Adoption: A Game-Changer

Institutional activity has become a cornerstone of SUI's growth narrative. The launch of the Grayscale SUI Trust in late 2025, for example, has provided accredited investors with a regulated vehicle to access the asset, signaling growing institutional legitimacy according to market reports. Concurrently, SUI's trading volume surged to $1.5 billion in late 2025, reflecting genuine accumulation rather than speculative noise according to TradingView analysis. This surge coincided with SUI's rebound from November lows near $1.12 to the $1.60 support zone, a move analysts attribute to institutional demand absorbing increased circulating supply.

Moreover, SUI's expanding DeFi ecosystem-marked by rising TVL and Open Interest (OI)-has further bolstered institutional confidence. These metrics not only validate SUI's utility but also suggest a maturing market structure capable of supporting higher price targets.

Challenges and Catalysts: The Road Ahead

While the technical and institutional outlook is largely bullish, SUI faces a critical test in May 2025 when a $265 million token unlock occurs according to market analysis. The market's ability to absorb this new supply without significant price pressure will be a key determinant of whether SUI can sustain its upward trajectory . If successful, this test could pave the way for a move toward $6.90, a target cited by analysts who emphasize institutional adoption and technological advancements as primary drivers.

However, the path to $10 remains speculative. Current projections cap at $6.90 according to analysis, though extrapolating from SUI's recent performance and institutional tailwinds, a $10 target would require a continuation of the current trends, including further TVL growth, expanded institutional participation, and a favorable regulatory environment.

Conclusion: Beyond $1.18

In summary, while the $1.18 support level played a historical role in SUI's price action, late 2025 data indicates that the asset's breakout potential is now anchored to higher technical levels and institutional-driven dynamics. The Grayscale SUI Trust, robust DeFi metrics, and strategic accumulation by large investors are the true catalysts for SUI's next phase. For SUI to reach $10, these factors must continue to align, with the May 2025 token unlock serving as a critical inflection point. Investors should monitor both technical resilience above $1.80 and institutional inflows as key indicators of whether this ambitious price target is within reach.