SUI & JUP Unlocks: $120M+ in Liquidity Hits Markets

The immediate context is a wave of liquidity hitting markets. This month alone, over $1 billion in token supply is scheduled for release, with a concentrated $120 million+ injection across seven projects in early February. The scale of these events sets the stage for heightened volatility and tests market depth.

SUI leads the charge with the largest single-dollar-value unlock. On February 6, ~54 million tokens worth roughly $80 million will be released, representing 1.25% of its total supply. This event is a major test for a project with only 34.5% of its tokens already circulating, creating a low-float vulnerability to selling pressure.

JUP's unlock is smaller but follows a similar pattern. The project will release $8.05 million worth of tokens (0.53% of its circulating supply) on February 26. This is part of the same broader wave, alongside other significant releases like Hyperliquid and Berachain, which are set to inject hundreds of millions more into the market.

Market Context: Price and Volume Pressure

JUP's price action reveals a market under significant stress. The token is down over 22% in the past month and 67% over six months, trading near its all-time low of $1.92. This deep decline indicates a market that has already absorbed substantial selling pressure, leaving it vulnerable to further weakness when new supply hits.

Yet, the market isn't dead. Despite the steep price drop, JUP's 24-hour trading volume remains high at $14.74 million. This active volume suggests that traders are still engaged, potentially positioning for volatility around upcoming events like the February 26 unlock. High volume at depressed prices can signal either capitulation or a gathering of liquidity for a potential bounce.

The broader altcoin sentiment is weak, adding to the pressure. Negative funding rates on perpetual contracts indicate that traders are being paid to go long, a classic sign of extreme bearishness and a crowded trade. This environment makes it harder for any token, especially one with a low float like JUP, to absorb new supply without a sharp price reaction.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch

The primary risk is straightforward: recipients of the unlocked tokens choose to sell, adding direct supply pressure to a market with weak sentiment. This is the core dynamic that will determine price impact. The evidence shows these are not minor events; they are concentrated injections of liquidity that will test market depth.

Watch for price action around the key unlock dates. The SUI unlock on February 6, valued at roughly $80 million, is a major test for a project with a low circulating supply. Its price reaction will signal whether the market can absorb this flow. Then, the JUP unlock on February 26, worth $8.05 million, will be the next critical data point for that specific asset.

The broader test is the market's ability to absorb over $1 billion in liquidity injections this month. Events like the ~$307 million Hyperliquid release and the ~$29 million Berachain unlock represent massive supply shocks. If prices hold or rally despite these events, it suggests underlying demand is stronger than the current bearish funding rates indicate. If they break down, it confirms the market's vulnerability.