SUI's 2025 Price Surge: Technical Momentum and On-Chain Activity Signal Breakout Potential

Technical Momentum: A Confluence of Indicators

SUI's price action in 2025 has been a masterclass in technical resilience. By September 2025, the token traded at $3.67, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.27—a neutral but upward-trending reading that suggests buyers are gaining controlSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1]. The MACD histogram, now positive at 0.0113, reinforces this narrative, indicating growing bullish momentum despite the MACD line still hovering below the signal lineSUI Price Surges Above $3.40 as Institutional Accumulation Drives …^[5]. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands analysis reveals SUI trading near the middle band at $3.42, with the upper band at $3.85 acting as a critical psychological and technical resistance levelSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1].

Historical data from July 2025 provides further context. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages showed gains of 21.94% and 19.80%, respectively, while the 20-day MA lagged with a 10.04% declineSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1]. This divergence suggests short-term volatility but long-term structural strength. Analysts have projected a $4.20–$4.50 target if SUI maintains momentum above $2.20Sui Update: Onchain Growth, Staking Rewards, and Secure Staking …^[3], a threshold it has comfortably surpassed.

On-Chain Activity: Volume, Wallets, and TVL as Leading Indicators

On-chain metrics paint an equally compelling picture. SUI's Total Value Locked (TVL) surged from $1.5 billion in May 2025 to $2.19 billion by July 2025SUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1], a recovery that correlates with its 36% weekly price appreciation. This growth is underpinned by robust ecosystem adoption: daily active addresses spiked to 2.5 million in September 2025, up from an average of 1 million earlier in the yearSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1]. Wallet distribution data also reveals a 31.23 million active SUI accounts as of November 2024Sui Update: Onchain Growth, Staking Rewards, and Secure Staking …^[3], signaling incremental adoption driven by DeFi protocols like SuiLend, which saw a 90% TVL increase in a monthSUI Price Surges Above $3.40 as Institutional Accumulation Drives …^[5].

Trading volume trends further validate this bullish narrative. On September 12, 2025, SUI recorded a $114.2 million 24-hour volume on BinanceSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1], while Coinglass data highlighted a $9 million net inflow in spot trading—a stark contrast to outflows seen in other cryptocurrencies like WLD and DOGESUI Price Surges Above $3.40 as Institutional Accumulation Drives …^[5]. Notably, a $40 million outflow from exchanges over three days suggests accumulation by long-term holders, a classic precursor to price breakouts24-Hour Spot Funds In/Out Ranking: Net inflow of $3 billion for …^[4].

Breakout Potential: A Balancing Act

While the technical and on-chain fundamentals are overwhelmingly positive, risks remain. SUI's 52-week low remains 30.55% below its 2025 peak of $5.29SUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1], and a pullback to the middle Bollinger Band at $3.42 could trigger consolidation. However, the deflationary tokenomics—capped at 10 billion tokens and bolstered by staking mechanisms—provide a structural floorSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1]. Institutional interest, evidenced by high staking participation (75% of tokens staked) and competitive validator rewardsSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1], adds another layer of support.

Conclusion: A Case for Strategic Entry

SUI's confluence of technical momentum and on-chain strength positions it as a compelling candidate for a breakout in Q4 2025. The MACD's positive divergence, coupled with TVL recovery and robust wallet growth, suggests a maturing ecosystem capable of sustaining higher prices. However, investors should monitor the $3.85 resistance level and broader market conditions, as a failure to breach this threshold could lead to short-term volatility. For those with a medium-term horizon, SUI's fundamentals and technical setup present a high-probability trade, with $4.00–$4.33 as key price targetsSUI Price Prediction: Surging to $4.33 by September’s End ... - BTCC^[1]SUI Coin On The Verge Of Breakout, On-chain Metrics Flash Green^[2].