Structural Weaknesses and Centralization Drive Pi Network's 92% Price Collapse

The Pi Network token (PI) has experienced a dramatic price decline, plummeting to $0.1837 in September 2025, a 91.95% drop from its February 2025 all-time high of $3.00. The market capitalization has similarly collapsed from $18 billion to $2 billion, reflecting a broader bearish trend in the cryptocurrency sector. Analysts attribute the crash to structural weaknesses in the project, including centralization concerns, weak demand, and token supply dynamics Full Source Title^[1]. The Pi Network Foundation, a non-profit controlling over 90 billion tokens, has drawn criticism for opaque governance and limited ecosystem development, with only 70 decentralized applications (dApps) operational despite a $100 million venture fund launched in May 2025 Full Source Title^[2].

Token unlocks have exacerbated the downward pressure, with 126 million tokens released in September alone and 1.2 billion expected in the next 12 months. The increased supply has outpaced demand, as daily trading volumes remain below $30 million. Major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit have refused listings, with Bybit CEO Ben Zhou explicitly labeling Pi a "scam," citing risks to elderly investors . Chinese authorities had previously warned against the project in 2023, highlighting data privacy concerns and financial vulnerabilities .

Technical analysis reinforces the bearish outlook. The token has formed a bearish flag pattern on daily charts, trading below critical moving averages and key support levels. A breakdown below $0.1838 could trigger further declines toward $0.10, while a rebound above $0.3223 might invalidate the bearish scenario Full Source Title^[1]. On-chain data reveals 2.5 million tokens moved to self-custody wallets, suggesting long-term holding intentions, but liquidity remains fragile, with 96% of supply concentrated in top 100 wallets Full Source Title^[3].

Despite the slump, the Pi Network team has outlined a potential catalyst for recovery through the Protocol 23 upgrade, scheduled for late 2025 or early 2026. The upgrade aims to introduce DeFi tools like a decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM), addressing ecosystem utility gaps Full Source Title^[5]. However, experts caution that technical improvements alone may not resolve liquidity issues, urging token buybacks or burns to stabilize price action Full Source Title^[5].

Market participants remain divided. While some highlight Pi's 60 million user base and real-world merchant adoption in 155 countries as long-term strengths Full Source Title^[3], others emphasize the need for regulatory clarity and transparent governance to rebuild trust. Until the Core Team delivers tangible progress on mainnet deployment and ecosystem development, the token's trajectory remains uncertain .