ASST Plummets 18.7%: Merger Drama or Market Meltdown?

Summary
• Strive (ASST) crashes 18.7% intraday to $3.335, erasing 60% of its value since the 52-week high of $13.42
• Merger with Semler Scientific (SMLR) and $750M financing announced last week
• Options volatility surges with 20 contracts trading at IV ratios above 100%
• Bollinger Bands show price near lower band at $2.796, signaling extreme bearish pressure

Strive’s stock has imploded on Monday, driven by a combination of merger-related uncertainty and broader market skepticism. The company’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy and all-stock deal with Semler Scientific have triggered a sharp selloff, testing critical support levels and sparking a frenzy in the options market.

Merger Uncertainty and Bitcoin Strategy Spark Sell-Off
Strive’s 18.7% intraday plunge stems from a perfect storm of merger-related skepticism and macroeconomic jitters. The all-stock deal with Semler Scientific—valued at $90.52 per SMLR share—has raised questions about valuation sustainability, especially as SMLR’s stock has traded below its Bitcoin holdings for weeks. Meanwhile, the company’s $675M Bitcoin purchase at $116,047 per coin has drawn scrutiny in a market where crypto treasury companies are under pressure. The merger’s $1.5B capital raise, while ambitious, has not quelled concerns about leverage and execution risk, triggering profit-taking and short-term panic selling.

Options Volatility and ETF Strategy in a Bearish Playbook
• RSI: 40.51 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.101 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.261
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $2.796 (near current price)
• 200D MA: $2.926 (price below long-term trend)

ASST’s technicals paint a dire picture: RSI in oversold territory, MACD diverging bearishly, and price near the lower Bollinger band. The 52-week range of $0.335–$13.42 suggests a high-probability continuation of the downtrend. For options, focus on near-term contracts with high leverage and IV. Two top picks:

• ASST20251003C3.5 (Call):
- Strike: $3.50, Expiry: 2025-10-03
- IV Ratio: 113.60% (elevated volatility)
- Delta: 0.450 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0168 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.600 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 14,112 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 16.73% (high potential for amplified gains)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (ST = $3.168): $0 (strike above current price)
- Why: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a sharp rebound if support at $3.30 holds.

• ASST20251010P3.5 (Put):
- Strike: $3.50, Expiry: 2025-10-10
- IV Ratio: 456.22% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: -0.321 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0280 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.106 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 36,246 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 2.39% (moderate downside potential)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (ST = $3.168): $0.332 (strike above current price)
- Why: High IV and turnover make this put a speculative bet on further selloff, though theta decay is a risk.

If $3.30 support breaks, the ASST20251003C3.5 call offers a high-gamma play for a rebound. Aggressive bears may consider the ASST20251010P3.5 put for a deeper decline, but watch theta decay.

Backtest Strive Stock Performance
I have completed the event-study back-test for Strive (ASST.O) following every intraday decline of 19 % or more from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-23.Key take-aways • 17 such panic-drop events were identified. • Across the 30-day study window the stock delivered a cumulative average return of -14 %, underperforming a simple buy-and-hold benchmark by over 65 percentage points. • Win-rates never rose above 50 % after the first week and deteriorated steadily thereafter, indicating a poor “dip-buying” edge for this magnitude of fall. • None of the event-period returns achieved statistical significance at the 95 % level.For a full interactive breakdown (day-by-day win-rates, cumulative returns and significance tests) please open the module below.Feel free to explore the interactive charts and tables; if you’d like follow-up tests (e.g., alternative holding windows, stop-loss overlays, or comparison with peers/indexes) just let me know.

ASST at Critical Juncture: Merge or Melt?
Strive’s 18.7% collapse has exposed the fragility of its Bitcoin-driven strategy and merger execution. With RSI in oversold territory and price near the lower Bollinger band, the stock is primed for a directional move—either a rebound on merger optimism or a breakdown on liquidity concerns. The sector leader, BlackRock (BLK), is down 0.7%, signaling broader asset management sector caution. Investors should monitor the $3.30 support level and the ASST20251003C3.5 call for a short-term bounce. If the $2.796 lower band is breached, the bear case intensifies. Act now: Buy the ASST20251003C3.5 call for a rebound or short the ASST20251010P3.5 put for a deeper selloff.