Strive (ASST) Plunges 11.8%: Merger Hype Meets Reality Check in Volatile Crypto-Driven Trade

Summary
• Strive (ASST) collapses 11.8% to $2.425, erasing $0.33 from its 52-week high of $13.42
• Merger with Strive Enterprises and $750M financing announced, with Bitcoin accumulation strategy as core thesis
• Options chain shows extreme volatility: 276% implied volatility on put options, 136% on calls
• Intraday range of $2.38–$2.73 highlights sharp reversal from post-merger optimism to bearish sentiment

Strive’s stock is in freefall after a dramatic reversal from its post-merger rally. The company’s aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy and $1.5B capital raise have triggered a sharp selloff, with options markets pricing in extreme volatility. Traders are now dissecting technical indicators and options data to gauge whether this is a short-term panic or a structural shift in market sentiment.

Merger Hype and Bitcoin Strategy Spark Profit-Taking and Doubt
Strive’s 11.8% intraday plunge follows a volatile post-merger rally driven by its $750M financing and Bitcoin accumulation plan. While the merger with Strive Enterprises initially boosted shares 38% in after-hours trading, the subsequent selloff reflects investor skepticism about execution risks, dilution from the $750M PIPE, and regulatory uncertainties around crypto treasury strategies. The company’s pivot to Bitcoin as a corporate asset has drawn both institutional interest and caution, with the options market pricing in a 276% implied volatility on put options expiring October 3, signaling extreme bearish expectations.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with ASST Puts and Calls
• 200-day average: $2.97 (below current price) • RSI: 42.4 (oversold) • MACD: -0.49 (bearish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: Price at $2.425 (near lower band at $1.82) • Key support/resistance: 200D support at $0.36–$0.62, 30D support at $4.47–$4.60

Strive’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid oversold conditions and bearish MACD divergence. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

1. ASST20251003P2.5 (Put Option):
• Strike: $2.50 • Expiration: 2025-10-03 • IV: 276.40% • Leverage: 5.32% • Delta: -0.459 • Theta: -0.0162 • Turnover: $22,506
• IV (Implied Volatility): Extremely high, reflecting bearish expectations
• Leverage: Amplifies downside potential with moderate delta
• Theta: Rapid time decay favors quick directional moves
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures ease of entry/exit
• Payoff at 5% downside (ST = $2.30): $0.20 per contract (2.50 - 2.30 = $0.20). This put offers asymmetric upside if the selloff accelerates before October 3.

2. ASST20251017P2.5 (Put Option):
• Strike: $2.50 • Expiration: 2025-10-17 • IV: 437.90% • Leverage: 2.28% • Delta: -0.309 • Theta: -0.0172 • Turnover: $116,014
• IV: Suggests even more bearish pricing than the October 3 contract
• Leverage: Lower than the shorter-dated put but with higher IV
• Theta: Strong time decay for a mid-term play
• Turnover: Exceptional liquidity for a mid-term option
• Payoff at 5% downside (ST = $2.30): $0.20 per contract. This option balances time and volatility, ideal for a medium-term bearish bet.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize ASST20251003P2.5 for immediate exposure to a potential breakdown below $2.50. For a more conservative approach, ASST20251017P2.5 offers extended time to capture a deeper selloff.

Backtest Strive Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test report for the “−12 % intraday plunge” strategy on Strive (ticker: ASST) covering 1 Jan 2022 – 26 Sep 2025. Key implementation notes 1. Event-date identification: a trading day is flagged when that day’s low price ≤ 88 % of the previous close (an intraday fall of at least −12 %). 2. Position logic: open at the next day’s close after such a plunge and hold for up to 10 trading days (chosen as a reasonable short-term rebound window in the absence of a user-specified horizon). Positions are force-closed at day 10 if no exit occurs earlier. 3. Pricing: close prices are used for entry/exit to reflect end-of-day fills. 4. Time span: 2022-01-01 to today (2025-09-26), matching your request “2022 to now”. For full statistics, charts and trade log, please view the module.Please open the module to explore performance metrics (CAGR, win-rate, drawdown), equity curve, and individual trade outcomes.

Strive’s Volatility: A Crossroads for Crypto-Driven Treasuries
Strive’s 11.8% drop underscores the fragility of market sentiment around crypto treasury strategies. While the company’s Bitcoin pivot and $1.5B capital raise position it as a sector innovator, the selloff highlights risks of execution delays and regulatory scrutiny. Key levels to watch: the 200D support at $0.36–$0.62 and the 30D support at $4.47–$4.60. If the stock breaks below $2.38, the put options highlighted above could deliver outsized returns. Meanwhile, sector leader MicroStrategy (MSTR), up 2.3% intraday, offers a benchmark for investor confidence in crypto treasury strategies. Traders should monitor ASST’s ability to hold above $2.50 and the broader market’s reaction to Bitcoin’s price action.