Stratis/Tether Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Key Support Levels

• Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) declined sharply during the overnight session, printing a fresh 24-hour low at $0.03993.
• Momentum weakened across most of the 24-hour period, with RSI and MACD signaling bearish exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands tightened following the initial sell-off before expanding with the morning rebound.
• Trading volume spiked during the early hours before moderating, with no significant divergence in turnover.
• A potential short-term bounce is forming near key Fibonacci retracement levels around $0.0401–0.0403.

Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at $0.04289 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.04301 before closing at $0.03995 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour period saw STRAXUSDT fall to a low of $0.03993. Total volume amounted to 6,957,714 STRAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $287,150, calculated using average pricing across the interval.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias driven by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Key support levels formed at $0.04000–0.0402 and $0.03985–0.03995, with the latter showing early signs of being a potential pivot zone. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 12:00 AM and 12:15 AM (ET), followed by a long lower wick in the 12:45 AM to 1:00 AM candle, signaling rejection near $0.03993. A doji near $0.04003 suggests indecision but may indicate a potential bounce if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are both trending downward, with price currently below both. This suggests continued bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at $0.0414, with the 100DMA and 200DMA at $0.0423 and $0.0431 respectively. Price remains below all three, indicating a strong bearish bias on a larger time frame.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the overnight sell-off and remains in bearish territory, with the histogram expanding during the early hours. RSI dropped below 30 by 06:15 AM ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, RSI has shown no significant strength in the past four hours, suggesting the oversold condition may not lead to a strong reversal. The divergence between price and RSI remains neutral for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction during the overnight sell-off, with price compressing near the lower band. Following the morning bounce, volatility began to expand, and price has remained near the midline of the bands. This suggests a potential short-term range-trading environment forming, with key support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight session, particularly between 02:00 AM and 04:00 AM ET, as STRAXUSDT dropped to $0.03993. Notional turnover spiked in line with volume during this period, indicating significant selling pressure. Volume has remained above the 20-period average since the initial decline, suggesting the bearish move is still being supported. A divergence between price and turnover has not emerged yet, so the trend remains intact for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the $0.04301 high to the $0.03993 low show key support at $0.0401 (38.2%) and $0.0400 (61.8%). Price bounced near $0.04003 during the morning session, suggesting early buyers may have stepped in. A break below $0.0400 could trigger a move toward $0.0399 and $0.03985. On the upside, a close above $0.0404 could retest $0.0406 and $0.0407 levels in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question is designed to capture short-term bounces in a bearish environment by entering long positions near key Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 38.2% and 61.8% levels. Given STRAXUSDT’s current positioning near $0.0400, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement, this setup could be a favorable entry point if buyers confirm the level with a reversal candle. A stop-loss would be placed below $0.03995, with a target at $0.0403–0.0404. The use of RSI as a momentum filter and Bollinger Bands for volatility assessment provides an effective risk-reward framework for this strategy.