Stratis/Tether Market Overview: Bearish Momentum Gains Control

• STRAXUSDT fell sharply after midday ET, forming a bearish reversal pattern.
• Price declined from 0.03715 to 0.03347, closing near the session low.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum, while volume surged during the sell-off.
• Bollinger Bands show significant price contraction as the trend consolidated.
• Fibonacci levels near 0.0332–0.0334 may act as near-term support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at 0.03704 and traded as high as 0.03734 before closing at 0.03347. The 24-hour price range spanned from 0.03734 to 0.02636, marking a significant bearish move. Total trading volume for the period was 17,208,111 STRAX, while notional turnover reached $5.89 million. A deep pullback in the afternoon ET time zone, driven by a strong bearish candle with long lower wicks and a sharp close, signaled increasing selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish reversal pattern forming after the midday ET high, with a long bearish candle (0.03675 open, 0.03636 close) followed by a continuation of downward momentum. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.0334–0.0332, as multiple candles found support around that range. A doji candle appears at 0.0331, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move. A larger bearish engulfing pattern is visible during the session’s largest sell-off, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) are both below price levels, showing a bearish tilt. The 50-period line is trending downward sharply after a large 15-minute bearish candle. Longer-term averages (100/200-period daily) remain above current levels, indicating that the pair may be entering a larger bearish phase. If the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period, it would confirm a stronger bearish momentum shift.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a bearish crossover, with the histogram shrinking slightly as price consolidates near 0.0334. RSI is trending into oversold territory (~32), suggesting that further consolidation or a small bounce could be in the cards. However, the divergence between the strong RSI drop and the sustained bearish candle closes implies that the downtrend has momentum. A bounce above 0.0336 would need to be confirmed with volume for a reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly in the last 4 hours, with price currently trading near the lower band (0.0334). This contraction suggests a potential breakout is near. However, the bearish trend remains intact, and a breakout to the upside would need strong volume confirmation to be valid. A sustained move above the upper band (0.0336) could trigger short-term buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key bearish reversal candle (0.03675–0.03636) with 2.2 million STRAX traded in that period. Notional turnover also surged during this time, confirming the bearish move. A divergence in volume is emerging in the final hours of the session, with a modest increase in volume paired with smaller bearish candles, suggesting some short-term exhaustion or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 0.03636–0.03347 swing, 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 0.0349 and 0.0339, respectively. Price appears to have tested and rejected the 61.8% level, suggesting that 0.0334 is a more likely near-term support. A breakdown below that would open the path to 0.0329 and beyond, with a larger daily Fibonacci level at 0.0310 as a potential target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves using the 50-period EMA as a dynamic support/resistance level in conjunction with RSI divergence. When price closes below the 50-period EMA and RSI diverges (lower highs with higher RSI), a short entry could be triggered. A stop-loss is placed above the 20-period EMA, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level. This strategy aligns with the recent bearish bias and could provide a framework for managing short-term bearish momentum.