Stratis/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• STRAXUSDT declined 24-hour low to 0.03871, down 3.6% from 12:00 ET–1 open.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with price retesting key support levels.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum and oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show price sitting near the lower band, signaling heightened downside pressure.
• A large volume divergence occurred post-21:00 ET, hinting at potential short-term reversal risk.

Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at 0.03998 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03871 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low reached 0.03871, while the high was 0.04048. Total volume traded amounted to 10,288,488.0 STRAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $399,498.00 (based on STRAXUSDT pricing).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias, with STRAXUSDT breaking below key support at 0.04000. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed between 17:15 and 17:30 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. Price action also displayed a strong pinocchio pattern on the 16:00 candle, confirming bearish control. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.03900, which was tested twice within the last 6 hours, with the second test showing a weaker rejection.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed below price, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50/100/200-day EMA lines are also aligned below current price levels, suggesting that the longer-term trend remains bearish. A potential short-term bounce could be invalidated if price fails to close above the 20-period MA on subsequent candles.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, confirming the downward momentum. RSI has entered oversold territory below 30 for the past 3 hours, which could attract short-covering or a bounce from the 0.03900 level. However, RSI remains bearish overall, with no clear signs of a reversal in the broader trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased in the last 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening. Price is currently trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential short-term bounce or a continuation of the downtrend. A close above the middle band would signal a temporary loss of bearish control, but this appears unlikely without a clear reversal pattern forming.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged past 1 million STRAX between 10:00 and 12:00 ET, coinciding with the price testing support at 0.03900. This volume divergence—paired with a weak price rejection—suggests potential exhaustion in the downtrend. However, notional turnover remains relatively low despite the volume spike, indicating limited conviction in the bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.04048 to 0.03871 swing, the 61.8% level at 0.03942 has shown moderate resistance. Price appears to be testing the 38.2% level at 0.03978, which may act as a pivot in the short term. A breakout above this level could signal a temporary bullish reversal but is unlikely to change the longer-term bearish setup.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions on STRAXUSDT when price breaks below the 20-period EMA with confirmation from a bearish RSI divergence (below 50) and volume expansion. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance level (e.g., 0.04000), and a take-profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the most recent rally. The recent price action aligns with this setup, offering a viable entry point for short-term bearish strategies.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

STRAXUSDT appears to be consolidating near the 0.03900 support level, with RSI signaling potential overbought conditions for a short-term bounce. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and a break below 0.03900 could accelerate the decline toward 0.03850. Investors should watch for volume confirmation on any rally and remain cautious of possible volatility spikes in the next 24 hours.