Stratis/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-21

• STRAXUSDT opened at $0.04315, peaked at $0.04341, and closed at $0.04296 with bearish momentum.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.04341 and tested key support at $0.04301–$0.04297.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a volume spike of 1,180,121 STRAX at $0.0433.
• RSI and MACD indicated weak momentum, while Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion.
• Turnover confirmed bearish bias but diverged with price after 09:30 ET.

Stratis/Tether (STRAXUSDT) opened at $0.04315 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.04296 at the same time on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour high reached $0.04341, while the low fell to $0.04263. Total volume traded was approximately 6.79 million STRAX, with a notional turnover of around $292,000.

The price action displayed a bearish bias with a sharp drop from $0.04341 to $0.04263, driven by a bearish engulfing pattern near the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands. A critical support zone formed around $0.04301–$0.04297, with multiple bounces. The RSI trended lower into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound, although MACD momentum remained bearish. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

STRAXUSDT formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern near $0.04341 during the early U.S. trading session, signaling a likely reversal in the short term. A key support zone emerged between $0.04301 and $0.04297, with repeated retests indicating the potential for consolidation or a counter-move. A bearish harami formed around $0.0431–$0.04305 after 01:00 ET, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The price also formed a potential bearish divergence with volume after 09:30 ET, suggesting a weakening of the bearish thrust.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line during the drop to $0.04263, confirming short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA currently sits above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a mixed longer-term trend. The price appears to be consolidating around the 50-period daily MA, suggesting a possible short-term bounce but with limited upside unless bullish volume accompanies it.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative mid-session, reinforcing the bearish trend with no significant bullish crossover expected in the near term. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 after 09:30 ET, suggesting a potential rebound could occur from $0.04274–$0.04291. However, RSI divergence with price and volume indicates the rebound may be limited. The histogram on the MACD remains bearish, showing little sign of reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the price dropping to the lower band near $0.04263. This contraction could suggest a possible mean reversion to the upper band if bullish volume emerges. However, the current wide band indicates heightened volatility, and any bounce could be short-lived unless volume confirms bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical sell-off at 19:00 ET with over 1.18 million STRAX traded at $0.0433. However, subsequent volume failed to confirm bullish momentum, with only moderate buying interest observed after 09:30 ET. Turnover diverged from price after the 09:30 ET timeframe, indicating weakening bearish conviction. This suggests a potential short-term reversal but also highlights the risk of further consolidation or a break below $0.04263.

Fibonacci Retracements

A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the high of $0.04341 to the low of $0.04263 shows key levels at $0.04317 (38.2%) and $0.04293 (61.8%). These levels have acted as temporary support and resistance, with the price consolidating around the 61.8% level. A break above $0.04317 could signal a short-term bullish reversal, but failure to hold $0.04293 could trigger a deeper bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed structure and volume action, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a bearish engulfing pattern near the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop just above the high of the engulfing pattern. A take-profit target could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the next significant support near $0.04263. Given the weak RSI and MACD confirmation, the strategy would also benefit from a volume-based filter, such as a 20-period volume spike exceeding the average volume threshold by 1.5x, to increase the signal-to-noise ratio.