Strategy Surges 6% on MSCI Decision Not to Exclude Digital Asset Treasury Firms from Indexes

MSCI Inc. has announced a decision not to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings from its flagship Global Investable Market Indexes as of January 15, 2026. This decision follows a review of eligibility criteria for firms holding a majority of their balance sheet assets in digital currencies like Bitcoin.

The firm's choice to retain these firms in its core indices has significant implications for global capital allocation and investment flows. Analysts estimate that a potential exclusion could trigger up to $15 billion in market-wide outflows over a 12-month period.

MSCI's decision arrives amid a broader shift in investor behavior, with digital asset investment products attracting $47.2 billion in global inflows in 2025, according to a report by CoinShares.

Why Did This Happen?

MSCI's review centered on whether firms with over 50% of their assets in digital holdings should be excluded from its core indices. Such a move would directly impact the inclusion of these firms in ETFs and institutional portfolios, potentially altering index composition and capital distribution as detailed in the analysis.

The firm's decision to not exclude these firms suggests a recognition of the evolving landscape in corporate accounting and digital asset integration. Michael Saylor's Strategy, for example, has continued to build its Bitcoin holdings while maintaining operational capital through stock sales and reserves.

Following the news, MSCI's stock surged 6.43% in the week leading up to the decision. The move reinforced MSCI's role as a benchmark gatekeeper while mitigating short-term volatility for affected stocks.

The decision has also benefited MSCI financially. The firm's Q3 2025 results showed GAAP earnings per share of $4.47, surpassing analyst expectations of $4.37, and revenue grew 9.5% year-over-year to $793.43 million.

Investors are now watching for further developments in regulatory and institutional adoption of digital assets. The U.S. Senate is expected to continue its discussions on a crypto-specific bill, which could shape the future landscape for digital asset inclusion in traditional indices.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the implications of MSCI's decision on ETF flows and institutional portfolio adjustments. The potential exclusion of companies with heavy crypto exposure could trigger up to $2.8 billion in selling pressure, according to JPMorgan.

The broader impact on capital allocation remains a key concern. The Bitcoin for Corporations advocacy group estimates that index-wide outflows could reach $15 billion over a 12-month period if the policy were to be implemented.

Market analysts are also observing whether the trend in digital asset investments will expand beyond the U.S. to include Germany, Canada, and Asia in 2026. If such expansion occurs, it could establish a stronger value floor for the market.

MSCI's decision also influences the construction of global indices and short-term capital movements into affected securities. The firm's strategic direction in accommodating or resisting the evolving landscape of crypto-inclusive corporate accounting will continue to be a focal point for investors.