Strategy (MSTR) Surges 3.6% Amid Bitcoin Treasury Expansion and Rebranding Drama

Summary
• Strategy’s stock price jumps 3.63% to $320.30, driven by a $22.1M Bitcoin purchase and rebranding to 'Strategy'.
• Intraday range of $311.00 to $326.25 highlights volatility amid regulatory scrutiny and index exclusion debates.
• Options volume spikes 27% above average, signaling bullish conviction in the name’s new identity.

MicroStrategy’s rebrand to Strategy has ignited a 3.6% intraday rally, fueled by aggressive Bitcoin accumulation and a high-stakes repositioning in the crypto-ETF space. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $543, the move reflects a blend of strategic repositioning and market speculation on the company’s Bitcoin-centric thesis.

Bitcoin Treasury Expansion and Rebranding Ignite Short-Term Optimism
The 3.6% surge in Strategy’s stock is directly tied to its $22.1M Bitcoin purchase, which increased its holdings to 640,031 BTC, and the recent rebranding to 'Strategy'. The company’s decision to simplify its identity aligns with its Bitcoin-first treasury strategy, emphasizing digital capital over traditional equity value. Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny and exclusion from the S&P 500 index have created a narrative of undervaluation, with investors betting on the intrinsic worth of its Bitcoin reserves. The rebranding announcement, coupled with Michael Saylor’s public advocacy for Bitcoin as a digital transformation tool, has amplified short-term bullish sentiment.

Blockchain Sector Volatility: MARA Gains 8.6% as MSTR Faces Index Exclusion Headwinds
While Strategy’s rebranding and Bitcoin purchases have driven its 3.6% gain, Marathon Digital (MARA) has surged 8.6% on news of nearing $6B in Bitcoin holdings. The blockchain sector remains polarized, with investors rotating into companies with clearer operational metrics. MARA’s performance highlights the market’s preference for traditional mining operations over speculative Bitcoin treasury plays, despite MSTR’s larger BTC holdings. The S&P 500 exclusion continues to weigh on MSTR’s institutional appeal, creating a divergence in sector performance.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on MSTR’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day MA: 352.37 (above) | RSI: 39.77 (oversold) | MACD: -11.20 (bearish) | Bollinger Bands: 308.14–351.40
• Short-term bearish trend, long-term ranging: Key support at $308.14, resistance at $351.40.

Top Options:
• MSTR20251003C320: Call, $320 strike, 57.12% IV, 36.40% leverage, delta 0.523, theta -2.186, gamma 0.018596, turnover $6.17M. High leverage and moderate delta position this as a gamma-driven play for a 5% upside to $336.42, yielding $16.42 per contract.
• MSTR20251003C325: Call, $325 strike, 57.12% IV, 48.91% leverage, delta 0.4309, theta -1.946, gamma 0.018347, turnover $5.79M. Strong liquidity and theta decay make this ideal for a breakout above $325, with a 5% upside target of $341.32, netting $16.32 per contract.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target MSTR20251003C320 into a break above $325. If $327.50 holds, consider rolling into MSTR20251003C330 for extended exposure.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
The event-level back-test has been completed. A visual report summarising MicroStrategy’s (MSTR.O) performance after every ≥ 4 % daily close-to-close jump since 1 Jan 2022 is attached below.Feel free to explore the interactive chart for detailed win-rate, excess-return and holding-period statistics.

MSTR’s Rebranding Drama: A Short-Term Catalyst or Long-Term Red Flag?
The 3.6% rally in Strategy’s stock is a short-term reaction to its Bitcoin treasury expansion and rebranding, but sustainability hinges on resolving regulatory and index inclusion uncertainties. Technicals suggest a test of $351.40 (Bollinger Upper) as a key resistance, with MARA’s 8.6% gain underscoring sector rotation risks. Investors should monitor the $308.14 support level and the S&P 500 exclusion debate. For now, the MSTR20251003C320 call offers a high-gamma play on a potential breakout, but caution is warranted if Bitcoin’s $110K retest triggers broader crypto-ETF selloffs.