Strategy Faces 91% Chance of S&P 500 Inclusion by June 2025

MicroStrategy, the enterprise software firm led by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor and now rebranded as Strategy, is on the brink of a significant achievement. According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, the company has a 91% chance of being included in the prestigious S&P 500 Index by the end of the second quarter of 2025. This potential inclusion could mark a historic moment for both the firm and the broader corporate landscape aligned with cryptocurrency.

Walton's analysis indicates that the success of Strategy's inclusion hinges on Bitcoin maintaining a price above $95,240 through June 30. At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $106,044, suggesting that the conditions for inclusion were favorable. However, any drop below the threshold could jeopardize the plan.

In a video released on Tuesday, Walton explained that if Bitcoin falls by more than 10% before the end of the quarter, Strategy's second-quarter earnings would not be sufficient to offset the cumulative losses from the previous three quarters. To qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must demonstrate positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. Although Strategy has posted net losses in the last three quarters, a strong second-quarter performance, largely driven by gains from its Bitcoin holdings, could secure its eligibility.

Since the beginning of 2025, Strategy has adopted the ASU 2023-08 accounting rule, which requires marking Bitcoin holdings to fair market value. As a result, the company's quarterly earnings are now directly linked to Bitcoin's price movements, making its S&P 500 eligibility increasingly dependent on short-term crypto market performance.

With 592,345 BTC on its balance sheet, Strategy currently holds more Bitcoin than any other publicly traded company. Walton's 91% probability is based on Bitcoin's historical behavior. Since September 17, 2014, there have been 343 instances where Bitcoin fell by more than 10% over a 6-day period, compared to 3,585 periods where it did not. This equates to an 8.7% chance of a steep drop, leaving Strategy with a 91.3% probability that Bitcoin will remain stable as the second quarter concludes.

The probability of Bitcoin remaining stable increases with each passing day. For example, with 5 days remaining, the probability is 92.4%, with 4 days it is 93.4%, with 3 days it is 94.5%, with 2 days it is 95.8%, and with 1 day it is 97.6%. Despite the optimistic forecast, risks remain. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100,000 over the weekend, the first dip below that level since early May. However, at the time of publication, Bitcoin had recovered to $106,200, keeping Strategy on track.

If Strategy is added to the S&P 500, it would be the second crypto-related firm to do so in 2025, following Coinbase's inclusion in May. This potential inclusion underscores the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency within the traditional financial landscape and highlights the strategic importance of Bitcoin holdings for publicly traded companies.