Strategy Faces 91% Chance of S&P 500 Inclusion if Bitcoin Holds Above $95,240

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, is on the brink of joining the prestigious S&P 500 index. According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, there is a 91% chance that this will happen within the next five days. However, this inclusion is contingent on a critical condition: bitcoin must remain above a key threshold of $95,240 by June 30.

Walton's prediction is based on a thorough statistical analysis of bitcoin's historical behavior since September 2014. He examined over 3,900 six-day consecutive periods and found that bitcoin dropped more than 10% in only 8.7% of these periods. This means that in 91% of the periods, bitcoin did not experience a 10% drop. Therefore, the rule for Strategy is clear: bitcoin must stay above $95,240 until June 30 to meet the eligibility criteria for the S&P 500.

This new situation arises from Strategy's adoption of accounting rule ASU 2023-08 since January. This regulation requires bitcoin holdings to be revalued at their fair market value, directly impacting the company's financial results for each period. If bitcoin falls below $95,240, Strategy would not be able to report second-quarter profits exceeding those of the previous three quarters combined, a fundamental requirement for S&P 500 eligibility.

The odds are in Michael Saylor's favor as the deadline approaches. The probability of avoiding a 10% drop in bitcoin's value increases with each passing day. Over five days, the probability rises to 92.4%, and it reaches 97.6% over a single day. This favorable temporal dynamic contrasts with the recent volatility in crypto markets, where geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel pushed bitcoin below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May.

At the time of Walton's analysis, bitcoin was trading around $106,044, providing a comfortable safety margin above the critical threshold. The stakes are high for Strategy, as joining the S&P 500 would mark a major turning point for Saylor's bitcoin strategy. With 592,345 bitcoins in its portfolio, Strategy already holds the largest bitcoin portfolio among publicly traded companies.

If successful, Strategy would become the second crypto company to join the S&P 500 after Coinbase last May. The coming days will be decisive for Michael Saylor. If bitcoin remains strong, Strategy could carve its name in American financial history—a crowning achievement for a company that has bet its entire future on the widespread adoption of bitcoin.